There is currently no immediate or projected near-term impact of the Middle East conflict on the commercial aviation aftermarket.
What's Changed for Middle East MRO Since March?
While the Middle East conflict has not yet dented the commercial aviation aftermarket, a structural spike in jet fuel to $200 a barrel could accelerate older fleet retirements and reshape engine maintenance demands by 2027.
May 18, 2026
13:45
Difficulty: Intermediate
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Aviation Week's MRO Podcast
What's Changed for Middle East MRO Since March?
While the Middle East conflict has not yet dented the commercial aviation aftermarket, a structural spike in jet fuel to $200 a barrel could accelerate older fleet retirements and reshape engine maintenance demands by 2027.
May 18, 2026
13:45
Difficulty: Intermediate
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This episode
Cast
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The parent company of Malaysia Airlines looking to diversify into MRO services to hedge against rising fuel costs.
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Low-cost airline that recently collapsed, leaving mature A320 aircraft on the market.
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European aircraft manufacturer pushing to reach a target rate of 75 aircraft per month.
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Aircraft manufacturer working to increase production rates on narrowbody programs.
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Predicted oil prices would stay in the low hundreds for the rest of the year.
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Lufthansa's maintenance, repair, and overhaul division reported minimal Q1 impact from the conflict.
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Ratings agency that declared the Middle East conflict a structural problem lasting at least through the year.
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A geographic region experiencing significant airspace disruptions and high geopolitical risk.
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A strategically critical strait experiencing bottlenecks and shipping disruptions.
This episode
Claims & Sources
5 / 7 cited (71%)
Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.
Monetary or statistical effects of the Middle East conflict on the aftermarket are not expected for quarters, potentially not until 2027.
Lufthansa Technik reported minimal impact on their first-quarter results from the Middle East conflict, though airlines are beginning to cut flights at the margins.
Moody's revised its forecast to state that the Middle East conflict is a structural, non-temporary problem expected to last until at least the end of the year.
Jet fuel prices have risen to between $150 and $200, up from a previous range of $85 to $90.
JPMorgan predicted that oil prices will remain in the low hundreds for the rest of the year.
Malaysia Airlines reported at an ISTAT event that fuel now constitutes 50% of their operational costs.
TL;DR
Aviation Week editors James Pozzi, Sean Broderick, and Alex Derber evaluate how the ongoing Middle East conflict is reshaping the commercial aerospace aftermarket. While major engine OEMs have maintained strong guidance and report minimal near-term damage [1] — Sean Broderick "Commercial aviation aftermarket activity remains resilient despite the ongoing Middle East conflict. Major engine suppliers expect any tang…" 01:22 , the macroeconomic horizon looks challenging. Moody's has categorized the crisis as a structural problem lasting through 2026 [2] — Alex Derber "Analysts have shifted from predicting a short-term disruption to bracing for a structural problem lasting through the year. Airlines face a…" 04:59 , and jet fuel prices hovering near $200 are squeezing airline operating margins [3] — James Pozzi "Following the rejection of recent peace plans, jet fuel prices soared to a range of $150 to $200. This massive jump from historical average…" 06:12 . If prolonged, these pressures will accelerate older fleet retirements [4] — Sean Broderick "Faced with expensive fuel, airlines will selectively park their older, less efficient aircraft and prioritize modern fleets. This shift cou…" 08:51 , shifting the supply dynamics of used serviceable material (USM).
#Commercial Aviation
#Aviation MRO
#Geopolitics and Aerospace
#Supply Chain Disruptions
#Fuel Prices
#MRO
#Aviation
#Aftermarket
#Middle East
#Conflict
#Jet Fuel
#Airlines
#USM
#Supply Chain
#Engines
2 minute taster
The Structural Shift in Airline Risk Guidance
Analysts have shifted from predicting a short-term disruption to bracing for a structural problem lasting through the year. Airlines face a toxic combination of elevated financing costs, expensive jet fuel, and depressed discretionary travel demand.
High Fuel Drives Selective Fleet Groundings
Faced with expensive fuel, airlines will selectively park their older, less efficient aircraft and prioritize modern fleets. This shift could quickly flood the market with used serviceable material (USM), reshaping the aftermarket engine backlog.
Look closer
MRO editors James Pozzi, Sean Broderick and Alex Derber discuss the war in the Middle East and its effects on the aftermarket—both so far and in the months to come.
- MRO
- Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul; the service sector of the aviation industry dedicated to keeping aircraft safe and airworthy.
- OEM
- Original Equipment Manufacturer; in aviation, companies like Airbus, Boeing, GE, or Rolls-Royce that manufacture original aircraft and engines.
- USM
- Used Serviceable Material; secondhand, overhauled aircraft parts used as a cost-effective alternative to brand-new OEM components.
- ISTAT
- International Society of Transport Aircraft Trading; a major international forum for aviation finance, leasing, and trading.
- forensically
- To explain or analyze something in minute, scientific, or highly detailed depth.
- bellwether
- A sign or indicator of future trends, often a leading indicator for the broader industry.
