The SpaceX IPO could create the world's first trillionaire, force your retirement fund to buy in automatically, and give Elon Musk even more unchecked power — all at a trillion-dollar valuation that doesn't yet add up.
The Daily
The SpaceX IPO could create the world's first trillionaire, force your retirement fund to buy in automatically, and give Elon Musk even more unchecked power — all at a trillion-dollar valuation that doesn't yet add up.
TL;DR
The SpaceX IPO — likely the largest ever at $50–75B raised and a $1.25T valuation — is about to make every American a SpaceX investor whether they want to be or not, thanks to index fund rule changes. Ryan Mac warns that despite Starlink's $4.4B profit, AI costs have pushed SpaceX to a $4.3B net loss, the $28.5T TAM is mostly hype, and Musk's 85% voting control leaves shareholders with almost no accountability levers.
Business reporter Ryan Mac joins host Michael Barbaro to break down the impending SpaceX IPO — likely the largest in history — exploring the financials, the expanded retail investor access, the index fund rule changes, Elon Musk's track record, and the accountability risks for everyday investors.
Chapter 2 · 00:27
The largest IPO in history is about to happen — and it could create the first trillionaire.
The SpaceX IPO is set to raise $50–75 billion and value the company at over $1.25 trillion — making it likely the largest IPO ever. If it succeeds, it could make Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire.
The SpaceX IPO is expected to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, making it likely the largest IPO of all time.
SpaceX is expected to be valued at more than $1.25 trillion when it goes public.
Chapter 3 · 02:45
SpaceX is 23 years old and just now going public. Here's why the timing is everything.
SpaceX has been private for over 23 years, raising billions from venture capital and private equity. An IPO is a once-in-a-lifetime event that unlocks tens of billions of dollars to fund Musk's 30-year visions for space and AI.
OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX are all racing to tap public markets for tens of billions of dollars. Musk is moving first, and he's pitching SpaceX's AI angle directly against those rivals for the same investor pool.
Chapter 4 · 10:20
SpaceX is giving everyday investors 3x the usual access. Here's why that's not as generous as it sounds.
Normally 5–10% of IPO shares go to retail investors. SpaceX is opening up roughly 30%. Musk has built his fanbase on X for years, and this IPO is the payoff — he needs everyday holders to sustain the stock.
Roughly 30% of SpaceX IPO shares are expected to be allocated to retail (everyday) investors — about three times the typical 5–10%.
Chapter 5 · 13:55
You might not want SpaceX stock. Your retirement fund is buying it anyway.
If you hold an index fund tied to the Nasdaq 100, you're about to become a SpaceX investor. The index is fast-tracking SpaceX entry to just 15 days post-IPO — forcing passive funds to buy in. There is no opt-out.
Standard procedure requires a company to trade for 90 days before entering the Nasdaq 100. SpaceX gets in after 15. That forces every index fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 to buy SpaceX shares — whether they want to or not.
SpaceX will be added to the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 days of trading, compared to the standard 3-month cooling-off period.
Chapter 6 · 15:58
There is a fear of missing out here, a FOMO that, you know, they could be missing out on these potential gains for their investors in this kind of once in a lifetime IPO.
Chapter 7 · 22:50
Starlink made $4.4B. xAI burned it all. SpaceX is somehow losing money.
Starlink generated $4.4 billion in profit last year and SpaceX handles 85%+ of all mass launched to orbit. But the xAI merger doubled capital expenditures to $20.7 billion, turning the entire company to a $4.3 billion loss in 2025.
Chapter 8 · 27:15
Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, has amassed approximately 10 million users.
Starlink, SpaceX's satellite internet service, has amassed approximately 10 million users.
Starlink generated approximately $4.4 billion in profit last year, making it the crown jewel of SpaceX's business.
SpaceX rockets are estimated to carry more than 85% of all mass launched into orbit from Earth.
Chapter 9 · 30:15
SpaceX's capital expenditures doubled to $20.7 billion in 2024, driven largely by its AI investments after merging with xAI.
SpaceX's capital expenditures doubled to $20.7 billion in 2024, driven largely by its AI investments after merging with xAI.
Despite Starlink's profitability, SpaceX recorded a $4.3 billion loss across its whole business in 2025.
Chapter 10 · 33:30
SpaceX's own IPO documents estimate its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion — close to the entire US GDP.
SpaceX's own IPO documents estimate its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion — close to the entire US GDP.
Elon Musk's net worth fluctuates between $600 billion and $800 billion, making him already the world's richest person.
A $1,000 investment in Tesla at its IPO would be worth approximately $250,000 today.
Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion, but investor markdowns later valued the company as low as $10 billion.
Musk's shares in SpaceX carry 10 votes for every 1 vote held by a regular shareholder.
Elon Musk holds approximately 85% of the voting control in SpaceX through supervoting shares, giving him near-unchallenged authority.
No indexed bits in this chapter.
Standard procedure requires a company to trade for 90 days before entering the Nasdaq 100. SpaceX gets in after 15. That forces every index fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 to buy SpaceX shares — whether they want to or not.
Starlink generated $4.4 billion in profit last year and SpaceX handles 85%+ of all mass launched to orbit. But the xAI merger doubled capital expenditures to $20.7 billion, turning the entire company to a $4.3 billion loss in 2025.
If you hold an index fund tied to the Nasdaq 100, you're about to become a SpaceX investor. The index is fast-tracking SpaceX entry to just 15 days post-IPO — forcing passive funds to buy in. There is no opt-out.
This episode
Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.
The SpaceX IPO is likely to raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, making it potentially the largest IPO in history.
The SpaceX IPO is expected to value the company at more than $1.25 trillion.
Approximately 30% of SpaceX IPO shares are expected to be allocated to retail investors, compared to the typical 5–10%.
After the SpaceX IPO, the company will be added to the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 days of trading instead of the standard three-month cooling-off period.
Starlink has approximately 10 million users.
Starlink generated approximately $4.4 billion in profit last year.
SpaceX is estimated to carry more than 85% of all mass launched into orbit from Earth.
SpaceX's capital expenditures doubled to $20.7 billion in 2024.
SpaceX recorded a $4.3 billion loss across its entire business in 2025.
SpaceX's S-1 filing claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion, which Ryan Mac noted is close to the entire US GDP.
A $1,000 investment in Tesla at its IPO would be worth approximately $250,000 today.
Elon Musk bought Twitter for $44 billion in 2022, and investors later marked its value down to as low as $10 billion.
Elon Musk holds approximately 85% of voting control in SpaceX through supervoting shares that carry 10 votes per share.
Elon Musk's net worth currently fluctuates between $600 billion and $800 billion.
SpaceX was founded in 2002 and has been a private company for more than 23 years, raising money from venture capitalists and private equity.
The SpaceX S-1 filing document is 277 pages long.
This episode
Founder and CEO of SpaceX whose personal brand, voting control, and track record are central to the IPO's appeal and its risks.
The central subject of the episode — a rocket and satellite company founded in 2002 by Elon Musk, preparing for what could be the largest IPO in history.
Musk's social media platform, bought for $44 billion and later marked down to $10 billion before being merged into xAI, cited as a cautionary tale about Musk's risk profile.
Musk's electric car company cited as his most successful public company investment — a $1,000 IPO investment would be worth roughly $250,000 today.
Elon Musk's AI company, merged with SpaceX earlier in 2025, which dramatically increased capital expenditures and caused the company's overall loss.
AI company that filed to go public the same week as SpaceX, competing for the same pool of investor capital.
AI company also preparing to go public, competing with SpaceX for investor dollars in the AI and tech space.
Cited as an example of a retail brokerage through which mom and pop investors can purchase SpaceX shares during the IPO.
Cited as a cautionary example of an IPO where the stock initially fell before eventually recovering and growing many times over.
Mentioned as an example of the large institutional banks that traditionally dominate IPO share allocation.
Mentioned as an example of a large bank that typically receives the bulk of IPO share allocations, in contrast to SpaceX's retail-heavy approach.
Cited by Michael Barbaro as an example of a trillion-dollar company that justifies its valuation through massive profitability, unlike SpaceX.
Cited as an example of a retail brokerage platform through which everyday investors can access the SpaceX IPO.
SpaceX's satellite internet service with 10 million users and $4.4 billion in profit, described as the company's crown jewel.
A major stock market index that is relaxing its standard 90-day cooling-off rule to allow SpaceX to enter after just 15 days of trading, forcing index funds to buy SpaceX shares.
SpaceX's next-generation rocket intended to carry humans to Mars, cited as a major capital expenditure driver.
Elon Musk's stated ultimate goal for SpaceX — sending humans to Mars and building a self-sustaining civilization — used to justify the company's ambitious valuation.
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