Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back

Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back

Dan Loeb says Nvidia is undervalued right now and that investors refusing to size up on the world's most dominant chip company are making the same mistake they made with Google and Amazon.

Jun 5, 2026 31:16 Difficulty: Intermediate Played

TL;DR

Dan Loeb, founder of Third Point, joins the All-In besties to trace his evolution from anonymous message-board troll to running a ~$30 billion multi-strategy hedge fund. He breaks down his shift from event-driven investing to quality-focused, AI-aware stock picking, argues Nvidia is undervalued on a 2–3 year earnings basis, and details a successful short thesis on homebuilders. He also reveals his behind-the-scenes role in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon and his broader passion for criminal justice reform and education equity.

#short selling renaissance #event-driven investing #Nvidia valuation #homebuilder short thesis #Ross Ulbricht pardon #Silk Road crypto exchange #charter school reform #income inequality education #multi-strategy hedge fund #AI impact on investing #private credit expansion #Palantir investment #Enphase energy miss #shareholder activism #distressed debt investing #Dan Loeb #Third Point #short selling #hedge fund #Nvidia #Palantir #Enphase #activist investing #Ross Ulbricht #criminal justice reform #education reform #homebuilders #AI investing #multi-strategy #charter schools #private credit #presidential pardon #Silk Road #stock picking

Dan Loeb, founder and CIO of Third Point, joins the All-In besties to discuss his investing evolution from internet message-board troll to running a $30B multi-strategy hedge fund, his current views on short selling, Nvidia, and homebuilders, and his behind-the-scenes role in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon.

Chapter list
  • The episode opens with Jason Calacanis warmly introducing Dan Loeb as a 'legendary activist investor' and the CEO and CIO of Third Point. Before the conversation even begins, a montage of Loeb's sharpest lines plays: short selling's resurrection, the need for selectivity in a stock-picker's market, the evolution from shame-and-humor activism to a 'dare to be great' message, and the memorable quip that activism without a proxy contest is like Catholicism without hell. It's a 30-second encapsulation of the wit and conviction that made Loeb famous.

  • Chamath Palihapitiya opens the conversation by noting that Loeb was 'in WallStreetBets before WallStreetBets existed,' prompting a rich origin story. Loeb describes the early internet's chat boards — Yahoo, Silicon Investor, and others — as a genuinely novel technology for idea exchange: anonymous, chaotic, but full of substance. He wasn't just browsing; he was actively posting, trolling fraudulent companies, and profiting from short positions as he taunted management. Asked if he was the Original Troll, Loeb laughs and accepts the title without hesitation. He frames the era as a golden age for short sellers because so many companies in the 1990s were outright fraudulent and largely unsupervised — and uncovering them was, in his words, simply 'fun.'

  • Loeb's formal education in investing began earlier than most: as an 11th-grader posting books and making cold calls at a PaineWebber branch, trading options on Occidental Petroleum and Teledyne (likely in violation of securities laws, he jokes, though the statute of limitations has passed). His first serious job was at Warburg Pincus, learning enterprise valuation across private equity and venture capital, followed by a risk arb firm. But the real transformation happened at Jefferies, where the distressed debt desk gave him the '10,000 hours, 10,000 reps' he credits as his foundational education. He wrote up securities daily, moved large blocks of debt, and — crucially — absorbed the thought processes of customers like David Tepper and Eric Mindich's Goldman arb team. Loeb challenges the standard 'wise elder' model of mentorship, arguing that colleagues, peers, and even customers can be equally formative. He describes synthesising all of it as acting 'like a Chinese corporation — copying and reverse-engineering and creating my own operating system.'

  • With Third Point's early DNA mapped, Loeb explains the philosophy that drove its first decade: event-driven investing. The strategy worked because complex corporate transactions — demutualizations, privatisations, spin-offs, risk arb, bankruptcies — were simultaneously opaque, time-pressured, and flooded with excess securities supply. Management teams, with options being priced during these windows, were structurally incentivised to sandbag projections. As co-investors, Third Point could ride in at artificially depressed valuations and capture returns from multiple sources: better-than-expected earnings, improved coverage, and expanding multiples. Loeb anchors this timeless dynamic with a Jesse Livermore quote — 'There's nothing new under the sun' — and notes that management incentive misalignment remains as exploitable today as it was in the 1990s.

  • Loeb and the besties dig into one of the hardest questions in modern investing: what constitutes a durable moat when technology disrupts everything? Loeb is refreshingly candid — the confident moat narratives of the past (IBM, AOL, Yahoo) frequently proved delusional. True durability comes less from product or technology and more from management teams with the adaptability to stay ahead of disruption. When David Sacks asks whether management quality can be quantified or systematised, Loeb's answer is a flat 'no.' After 30 years, it's still pattern recognition. The conversation pivots to the besties' own distribution regrets: Third Point sold Palantir in the $20s and sold its Enphase stake below $1 at IPO, leaving an estimated $4 billion on the table. Sacks adds that the $100 billion mental ceiling investors imposed in the Facebook era now looks laughably small in a world of multi-trillion-dollar companies.

  • The episode's most surprising segment unfolds as Loeb walks through his involvement in the Ross Ulbricht pardon. He frames Ulbricht as sitting in the third category of his criminal justice taxonomy: not falsely convicted, but bearing a wildly disproportionate sentence — double life plus 40 years — for a crime that, while real, never included proven murder-for-hire charges. Introduced to the case through Reva Tez, a contact from Intel and friend of Olaf Carlsen-Wii, Loeb recognised the only path to freedom was a presidential pardon. He approached Charlie Kirk, who adopted the cause wholeheartedly and made it his sole personal ask of President Trump. A last-minute scare on the last day of Trump's 45th term — the Justice Department threatened to 'go after' Trump if he commuted the sentence — caused the commutation to be withdrawn. But four years later, Kirk pressed the case again, Trump followed through on a campaign promise to the crypto and libertarian communities, and Ulbricht received a full pardon. The twist that Loeb discovered just days before this recording: David Warrington, now White House Counsel, had been Ulbricht's personal attorney for a decade. Today, Ulbricht is married, expecting a child, and living freely. Loeb closes by describing his continuing work on individual cases through an organisation called Aleph, and his parallel fight against antisemitism.

event-driven investing
A hedge fund strategy that profits from corporate events like mergers, spin-offs, bankruptcies, and privatisations by exploiting the pricing dislocations these transactions create.
risk arbitrage (risk arb)
A strategy of buying and selling securities of companies involved in announced mergers or acquisitions to profit from the spread between the current price and the expected deal price.
CLO (Collateralised Loan Obligation)
A structured credit product that pools corporate loans and issues tranches of debt and equity to investors with different risk/return profiles.
demutualisations
The process by which a mutual company (owned by its members) converts into a shareholder-owned corporation, often creating mispricing opportunities for event-driven investors.
sandbagging
In a financial context, when management deliberately lowballs earnings or projections to reset expectations downward — often during a transaction — so they can later beat those lowered targets.
proxy contest
A shareholder campaign to replace a company's board members or change corporate policy by soliciting votes (proxies) from other shareholders, the main weapon of activist investors.
alpha
The excess return an investment generates above its benchmark; in hedge fund parlance, the performance attributable to skill rather than market exposure.
NVR
A US homebuilder known for its asset-light model of optioning land rather than owning it outright — widely imitated but rarely replicated, as Loeb's short thesis argued.
factoring company
A firm that purchases receivables (money owed to businesses) at a discount, providing sellers with immediate cash while profiting from the difference when the receivables are collected.
structured credit
Debt instruments engineered from pools of underlying assets (mortgages, loans, receivables) — includes products like CLOs, MBS, and ABS.
direct lending
Non-bank lending where a fund provides loans directly to businesses, typically mid-market companies, without an intermediary bank.
kibitz
To offer unsolicited opinions or commentary; used by Loeb to describe the informal idea-sharing culture of early internet investment chat boards.
moat
A durable competitive advantage that protects a company's market position and profitability from rivals — popularised by Warren Buffett.
GFC (Global Financial Crisis)
The 2007–2009 worldwide financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the US housing market and widespread failures in mortgage-backed securities.
channel checks
Primary research technique where investors speak directly with a company's customers, suppliers, or distributors to verify or challenge official financial reporting.
ROE (Return on Equity)
A profitability metric measuring net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity — a key indicator of how efficiently a company uses its capital base.
vexing
Persistently troubling or difficult to resolve; used by Dan Loeb to describe the challenge of deciding when to distribute or hold private-market equity positions.
contrition
Deep remorse for wrongdoing; used by Loeb in his criminal justice framework to describe prisoners who have genuinely acknowledged and regretted their actions.

Chapter 1 · 00:00

Dan Loeb joins the Besties!

The episode opens with Jason Calacanis warmly introducing Dan Loeb as a 'legendary activist investor' and the CEO and CIO of Third Point. Before the conversation even begins, a montage of Loeb's sharpest lines plays: short selling's resurrection, the need for selectivity in a stock-picker's market, the evolution from shame-and-humor activism to a 'dare to be great' message, and the memorable quip that activism without a proxy contest is like Catholicism without hell. It's a 30-second encapsulation of the wit and conviction that made Loeb famous.

Chapter 2 · 00:34

Investor journey: From message boards to a multibillion dollar hedge fund

Chamath Palihapitiya opens the conversation by noting that Loeb was 'in WallStreetBets before WallStreetBets existed,' prompting a rich origin story. Loeb describes the early internet's chat boards — Yahoo, Silicon Investor, and others — as a genuinely novel technology for idea exchange: anonymous, chaotic, but full of substance. He wasn't just browsing; he was actively posting, trolling fraudulent companies, and profiting from short positions as he taunted management. Asked if he was the Original Troll, Loeb laughs and accepts the title without hesitation. He frames the era as a golden age for short sellers because so many companies in the 1990s were outright fraudulent and largely unsupervised — and uncovering them was, in his words, simply 'fun.'

Business
From Message Boards to $30 Billion: Dan Loeb's Origin Story

Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Pick… · Jun 5, 2026 Business

Long before Reddit, Dan Loeb was anonymously trolling fraudulent companies on Yahoo and Silicon Investor — and making money doing it. The Wild West of early internet chat boards was his first investing laboratory, where he learned to detect fraud, taunt management teams, and ultimately prevail on the short side.

Chapter 3 · 03:15

Third Point's early days: mentors and market turmoil

Loeb's formal education in investing began earlier than most: as an 11th-grader posting books and making cold calls at a PaineWebber branch, trading options on Occidental Petroleum and Teledyne (likely in violation of securities laws, he jokes, though the statute of limitations has passed). His first serious job was at Warburg Pincus, learning enterprise valuation across private equity and venture capital, followed by a risk arb firm. But the real transformation happened at Jefferies, where the distressed debt desk gave him the '10,000 hours, 10,000 reps' he credits as his foundational education. He wrote up securities daily, moved large blocks of debt, and — crucially — absorbed the thought processes of customers like David Tepper and Eric Mindich's Goldman arb team. Loeb challenges the standard 'wise elder' model of mentorship, arguing that colleagues, peers, and even customers can be equally formative. He describes synthesising all of it as acting 'like a Chinese corporation — copying and reverse-engineering and creating my own operating system.'

Business
The Real School of Investing: Jefferies' Distressed Debt Desk

Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Pick… · Jun 5, 2026 Business

Forget the Ivy League — Dan Loeb's real MBA came from Jefferies' distressed debt desk in the 1990s. Writing up securities daily, moving big blocks of debt, and watching customer thought processes from David Tepper to Eric Mindich's Goldman arb team gave him an investing operating system nobody teaches in school.

Chapter 4 · 08:47

Strategy shift: Event-driven to quality and AI

With Third Point's early DNA mapped, Loeb explains the philosophy that drove its first decade: event-driven investing. The strategy worked because complex corporate transactions — demutualizations, privatisations, spin-offs, risk arb, bankruptcies — were simultaneously opaque, time-pressured, and flooded with excess securities supply. Management teams, with options being priced during these windows, were structurally incentivised to sandbag projections. As co-investors, Third Point could ride in at artificially depressed valuations and capture returns from multiple sources: better-than-expected earnings, improved coverage, and expanding multiples. Loeb anchors this timeless dynamic with a Jesse Livermore quote — 'There's nothing new under the sun' — and notes that management incentive misalignment remains as exploitable today as it was in the 1990s.

Chapter 5 · 16:01

The art of short selling and a homebuilder trade

Loeb and the besties dig into one of the hardest questions in modern investing: what constitutes a durable moat when technology disrupts everything? Loeb is refreshingly candid — the confident moat narratives of the past (IBM, AOL, Yahoo) frequently proved delusional. True durability comes less from product or technology and more from management teams with the adaptability to stay ahead of disruption. When David Sacks asks whether management quality can be quantified or systematised, Loeb's answer is a flat 'no.' After 30 years, it's still pattern recognition. The conversation pivots to the besties' own distribution regrets: Third Point sold Palantir in the $20s and sold its Enphase stake below $1 at IPO, leaving an estimated $4 billion on the table. Sacks adds that the $100 billion mental ceiling investors imposed in the Facebook era now looks laughably small in a world of multi-trillion-dollar companies.

Chapter 6 · 22:15

Criminal justice reform and the Ross Ulbricht pardon

The episode's most surprising segment unfolds as Loeb walks through his involvement in the Ross Ulbricht pardon. He frames Ulbricht as sitting in the third category of his criminal justice taxonomy: not falsely convicted, but bearing a wildly disproportionate sentence — double life plus 40 years — for a crime that, while real, never included proven murder-for-hire charges. Introduced to the case through Reva Tez, a contact from Intel and friend of Olaf Carlsen-Wii, Loeb recognised the only path to freedom was a presidential pardon. He approached Charlie Kirk, who adopted the cause wholeheartedly and made it his sole personal ask of President Trump. A last-minute scare on the last day of Trump's 45th term — the Justice Department threatened to 'go after' Trump if he commuted the sentence — caused the commutation to be withdrawn. But four years later, Kirk pressed the case again, Trump followed through on a campaign promise to the crypto and libertarian communities, and Ulbricht received a full pardon. The twist that Loeb discovered just days before this recording: David Warrington, now White House Counsel, had been Ulbricht's personal attorney for a decade. Today, Ulbricht is married, expecting a child, and living freely. Loeb closes by describing his continuing work on individual cases through an organisation called Aleph, and his parallel fight against antisemitism.

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Claims & Sources

0 / 13 cited (0%)

Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.

Third Point manages almost $30 billion in assets under management.

Chamath Palihapitiya no source cited

Nvidia is undervalued on earnings over the next 2 to 3 years.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Facebook IPO'd at a $50 billion valuation.

David Sacks no source cited

Third Point sold its Enphase Energy position below $1 at IPO and estimates the position would have been worth approximately $4 billion if held.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Third Point sold its entire Palantir stake in the $20s, missing a subsequent 8–10x gain.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Ross Ulbricht received a sentence of double life plus 40 years for his role in operating Silk Road.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Ross Ulbricht was never prosecuted for the murder-for-hire allegations that the government raised.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Eric Mindich was the youngest partner in Goldman Sachs history, running the arb desk.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Atom Computing, a quantum computing company in Third Point's portfolio, received government funding under terms where taxpayers will make significant money on the investment.

Dan Loeb no source cited

David Warrington was Ross Ulbricht's personal attorney for approximately a decade before becoming White House Counsel.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Dan Loeb started investing at age 10 when his father took him to meet a stockbroker.

Dan Loeb no source cited

The homebuilding industry had massive hidden commitments to land pools that they categorised as options but were effectively hard capital commitments.

Dan Loeb no source cited

Jonathan Grobman received an 18-year prison sentence for dealing in gray market diapers and baby formula.

Dan Loeb no source cited

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