Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back
Dan Loeb says Nvidia is undervalued right now and that investors refusing to size up on the world's most dominant chip company are making the same mistake they made with Google and Amazon.
All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Dan Loeb: The Lost Art of Short Selling, and Why Stock Picking is Back
Dan Loeb says Nvidia is undervalued right now and that investors refusing to size up on the world's most dominant chip company are making the same mistake they made with Google and Amazon.
TL;DR
Dan Loeb, founder of Third Point, joins the All-In besties to trace his evolution from anonymous message-board troll to running a ~$30 billion multi-strategy hedge fund. He breaks down his shift from event-driven investing to quality-focused, AI-aware stock picking, argues Nvidia is undervalued on a 2–3 year earnings basis [1] — Dan Loeb "Dan Loeb called Nvidia absolutely undervalued on a 2–3 year earnings basis. Long-short funds are structurally incentivised to short it beca…" 21:10 , and details a successful short thesis on homebuilders [2] — Dan Loeb "Third Point went short homebuilders with a two-part thesis: the industry was structurally impaired by hidden commitments to land pools it c…" 16:20 . He also reveals his behind-the-scenes role in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon and his broader passion for criminal justice reform and education equity [3] — Dan Loeb "Dan Loeb was a key player in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon — approaching Charlie Kirk, who made it his sole ask of President…" 23:00 .
Dan Loeb, founder and CIO of Third Point, joins the All-In besties to discuss his investing evolution from internet message-board troll to running a $30B multi-strategy hedge fund, his current views on short selling, Nvidia, and homebuilders, and his behind-the-scenes role in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon.
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The episode opens with Jason Calacanis warmly introducing Dan Loeb as a 'legendary activist investor' and the CEO and CIO of Third Point. Before the conversation even begins, a montage of Loeb's sharpest lines plays: short selling's resurrection, the need for selectivity in a stock-picker's market, the evolution from shame-and-humor activism to a 'dare to be great' message, and the memorable quip that activism without a proxy contest is like Catholicism without hell. It's a 30-second encapsulation of the wit and conviction that made Loeb famous.
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Chamath Palihapitiya opens the conversation by noting that Loeb was 'in WallStreetBets before WallStreetBets existed,' prompting a rich origin story. Loeb describes the early internet's chat boards — Yahoo, Silicon Investor, and others — as a genuinely novel technology for idea exchange: anonymous, chaotic, but full of substance. He wasn't just browsing; he was actively posting, trolling fraudulent companies, and profiting from short positions as he taunted management. Asked if he was the Original Troll, Loeb laughs and accepts the title without hesitation. He frames the era as a golden age for short sellers because so many companies in the 1990s were outright fraudulent and largely unsupervised — and uncovering them was, in his words, simply 'fun.' [1] — Dan Loeb "Long before Reddit, Dan Loeb was anonymously trolling fraudulent companies on Yahoo and Silicon Investor — and making money doing it. The W…" 00:34
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Loeb's formal education in investing began earlier than most: as an 11th-grader posting books and making cold calls at a PaineWebber branch, trading options on Occidental Petroleum and Teledyne (likely in violation of securities laws, he jokes, though the statute of limitations has passed). His first serious job was at Warburg Pincus, learning enterprise valuation across private equity and venture capital, followed by a risk arb firm. But the real transformation happened at Jefferies, where the distressed debt desk gave him the '10,000 hours, 10,000 reps' he credits as his foundational education. He wrote up securities daily, moved large blocks of debt, and — crucially — absorbed the thought processes of customers like David Tepper and Eric Mindich's Goldman arb team. Loeb challenges the standard 'wise elder' model of mentorship, arguing that colleagues, peers, and even customers can be equally formative. He describes synthesising all of it as acting 'like a Chinese corporation — copying and reverse-engineering and creating my own operating system.' [1] — Dan Loeb "Forget the Ivy League — Dan Loeb's real MBA came from Jefferies' distressed debt desk in the 1990s. Writing up securities daily, moving big…" 03:38
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With Third Point's early DNA mapped, Loeb explains the philosophy that drove its first decade: event-driven investing. The strategy worked because complex corporate transactions — demutualizations, privatisations, spin-offs, risk arb, bankruptcies — were simultaneously opaque, time-pressured, and flooded with excess securities supply. Management teams, with options being priced during these windows, were structurally incentivised to sandbag projections. As co-investors, Third Point could ride in at artificially depressed valuations and capture returns from multiple sources: better-than-expected earnings, improved coverage, and expanding multiples. Loeb anchors this timeless dynamic with a Jesse Livermore quote — 'There's nothing new under the sun' — and notes that management incentive misalignment remains as exploitable today as it was in the 1990s. [1] — Dan Loeb "Third Point started as a classic event-driven shop exploiting complexity — spin-offs, bankruptcies, privatizations — where management sandb…" 07:15
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Loeb and the besties dig into one of the hardest questions in modern investing: what constitutes a durable moat when technology disrupts everything? Loeb is refreshingly candid — the confident moat narratives of the past (IBM, AOL, Yahoo) frequently proved delusional. True durability comes less from product or technology and more from management teams with the adaptability to stay ahead of disruption. When David Sacks asks whether management quality can be quantified or systematised, Loeb's answer is a flat 'no.' After 30 years, it's still pattern recognition. The conversation pivots to the besties' own distribution regrets: Third Point sold Palantir in the $20s and sold its Enphase stake below $1 at IPO, leaving an estimated $4 billion on the table. Sacks adds that the $100 billion mental ceiling investors imposed in the Facebook era now looks laughably small in a world of multi-trillion-dollar companies. [1] — Dan Loeb "Third Point sold Palantir in the $20s and missed a near-10x run. It sold Enphase under $1 on the IPO and estimates leaving $4 billion on th…" 18:30
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The episode's most surprising segment unfolds as Loeb walks through his involvement in the Ross Ulbricht pardon. He frames Ulbricht as sitting in the third category of his criminal justice taxonomy: not falsely convicted, but bearing a wildly disproportionate sentence — double life plus 40 years — for a crime that, while real, never included proven murder-for-hire charges. Introduced to the case through Reva Tez, a contact from Intel and friend of Olaf Carlsen-Wii, Loeb recognised the only path to freedom was a presidential pardon. He approached Charlie Kirk, who adopted the cause wholeheartedly and made it his sole personal ask of President Trump. A last-minute scare on the last day of Trump's 45th term — the Justice Department threatened to 'go after' Trump if he commuted the sentence — caused the commutation to be withdrawn. But four years later, Kirk pressed the case again, Trump followed through on a campaign promise to the crypto and libertarian communities, and Ulbricht received a full pardon. The twist that Loeb discovered just days before this recording: David Warrington, now White House Counsel, had been Ulbricht's personal attorney for a decade. Today, Ulbricht is married, expecting a child, and living freely. Loeb closes by describing his continuing work on individual cases through an organisation called Aleph, and his parallel fight against antisemitism. [1] — Dan Loeb "Dan Loeb was a key player in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon — approaching Charlie Kirk, who made it his sole ask of President…" 23:00
- event-driven investing
- A hedge fund strategy that profits from corporate events like mergers, spin-offs, bankruptcies, and privatisations by exploiting the pricing dislocations these transactions create.
- risk arbitrage (risk arb)
- A strategy of buying and selling securities of companies involved in announced mergers or acquisitions to profit from the spread between the current price and the expected deal price.
- CLO (Collateralised Loan Obligation)
- A structured credit product that pools corporate loans and issues tranches of debt and equity to investors with different risk/return profiles.
- demutualisations
- The process by which a mutual company (owned by its members) converts into a shareholder-owned corporation, often creating mispricing opportunities for event-driven investors.
- sandbagging
- In a financial context, when management deliberately lowballs earnings or projections to reset expectations downward — often during a transaction — so they can later beat those lowered targets.
- proxy contest
- A shareholder campaign to replace a company's board members or change corporate policy by soliciting votes (proxies) from other shareholders, the main weapon of activist investors.
- alpha
- The excess return an investment generates above its benchmark; in hedge fund parlance, the performance attributable to skill rather than market exposure.
- NVR
- A US homebuilder known for its asset-light model of optioning land rather than owning it outright — widely imitated but rarely replicated, as Loeb's short thesis argued.
- factoring company
- A firm that purchases receivables (money owed to businesses) at a discount, providing sellers with immediate cash while profiting from the difference when the receivables are collected.
- structured credit
- Debt instruments engineered from pools of underlying assets (mortgages, loans, receivables) — includes products like CLOs, MBS, and ABS.
- direct lending
- Non-bank lending where a fund provides loans directly to businesses, typically mid-market companies, without an intermediary bank.
- kibitz
- To offer unsolicited opinions or commentary; used by Loeb to describe the informal idea-sharing culture of early internet investment chat boards.
- moat
- A durable competitive advantage that protects a company's market position and profitability from rivals — popularised by Warren Buffett.
- GFC (Global Financial Crisis)
- The 2007–2009 worldwide financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the US housing market and widespread failures in mortgage-backed securities.
- channel checks
- Primary research technique where investors speak directly with a company's customers, suppliers, or distributors to verify or challenge official financial reporting.
- ROE (Return on Equity)
- A profitability metric measuring net income as a percentage of shareholders' equity — a key indicator of how efficiently a company uses its capital base.
- vexing
- Persistently troubling or difficult to resolve; used by Dan Loeb to describe the challenge of deciding when to distribute or hold private-market equity positions.
- contrition
- Deep remorse for wrongdoing; used by Loeb in his criminal justice framework to describe prisoners who have genuinely acknowledged and regretted their actions.
Chapter 1 · 00:00
Dan Loeb joins the Besties!
The episode opens with Jason Calacanis warmly introducing Dan Loeb as a 'legendary activist investor' and the CEO and CIO of Third Point. Before the conversation even begins, a montage of Loeb's sharpest lines plays: short selling's resurrection, the need for selectivity in a stock-picker's market, the evolution from shame-and-humor activism to a 'dare to be great' message, and the memorable quip that activism without a proxy contest is like Catholicism without hell. It's a 30-second encapsulation of the wit and conviction that made Loeb famous.
Chapter 2 · 00:34
Investor journey: From message boards to a multibillion dollar hedge fund
Chamath Palihapitiya opens the conversation by noting that Loeb was 'in WallStreetBets before WallStreetBets existed,' prompting a rich origin story. Loeb describes the early internet's chat boards — Yahoo, Silicon Investor, and others — as a genuinely novel technology for idea exchange: anonymous, chaotic, but full of substance. He wasn't just browsing; he was actively posting, trolling fraudulent companies, and profiting from short positions as he taunted management. Asked if he was the Original Troll, Loeb laughs and accepts the title without hesitation. He frames the era as a golden age for short sellers because so many companies in the 1990s were outright fraudulent and largely unsupervised — and uncovering them was, in his words, simply 'fun.' [1] — Dan Loeb "Long before Reddit, Dan Loeb was anonymously trolling fraudulent companies on Yahoo and Silicon Investor — and making money doing it. The W…" 00:34
Long before Reddit, Dan Loeb was anonymously trolling fraudulent companies on Yahoo and Silicon Investor — and making money doing it. The Wild West of early internet chat boards was his first investing laboratory, where he learned to detect fraud, taunt management teams, and ultimately prevail on the short side.
Actrade was one of Loeb's earliest short victories: a repeat fraudster running a factoring company dressed up as a tech innovator, trading at five or six times book value. The 'special technology' turned out to be repackaged factory securities financing refrigerators.
Chapter 3 · 03:15
Third Point's early days: mentors and market turmoil
Loeb's formal education in investing began earlier than most: as an 11th-grader posting books and making cold calls at a PaineWebber branch, trading options on Occidental Petroleum and Teledyne (likely in violation of securities laws, he jokes, though the statute of limitations has passed). His first serious job was at Warburg Pincus, learning enterprise valuation across private equity and venture capital, followed by a risk arb firm. But the real transformation happened at Jefferies, where the distressed debt desk gave him the '10,000 hours, 10,000 reps' he credits as his foundational education. He wrote up securities daily, moved large blocks of debt, and — crucially — absorbed the thought processes of customers like David Tepper and Eric Mindich's Goldman arb team. Loeb challenges the standard 'wise elder' model of mentorship, arguing that colleagues, peers, and even customers can be equally formative. He describes synthesising all of it as acting 'like a Chinese corporation — copying and reverse-engineering and creating my own operating system.' [1] — Dan Loeb "Forget the Ivy League — Dan Loeb's real MBA came from Jefferies' distressed debt desk in the 1990s. Writing up securities daily, moving big…" 03:38
Third Point has grown from minimal startup capital to nearly $30 billion in assets under management across hedge fund, credit, CLO, private credit, and insurance businesses.
Forget the Ivy League — Dan Loeb's real MBA came from Jefferies' distressed debt desk in the 1990s. Writing up securities daily, moving big blocks of debt, and watching customer thought processes from David Tepper to Eric Mindich's Goldman arb team gave him an investing operating system nobody teaches in school.
Dan Loeb's father took him to meet a stockbroker at age 10, sparking a lifelong fascination with investing despite his father being a self-described 'notoriously bad investor.'
Loeb credits the Jefferies distressed debt desk as his real investment education — a fire-hose environment writing up securities daily that amounted to the canonical 10,000 hours of deliberate practice.
Third Point started as a classic event-driven shop exploiting complexity — spin-offs, bankruptcies, privatizations — where management sandbagging created alpha. Technology forced the pivot: today, the fund obsesses over business quality, durable moats, and which management teams can adapt to a world reshaped by AI.
Chapter 4 · 08:47
Strategy shift: Event-driven to quality and AI
With Third Point's early DNA mapped, Loeb explains the philosophy that drove its first decade: event-driven investing. The strategy worked because complex corporate transactions — demutualizations, privatisations, spin-offs, risk arb, bankruptcies — were simultaneously opaque, time-pressured, and flooded with excess securities supply. Management teams, with options being priced during these windows, were structurally incentivised to sandbag projections. As co-investors, Third Point could ride in at artificially depressed valuations and capture returns from multiple sources: better-than-expected earnings, improved coverage, and expanding multiples. Loeb anchors this timeless dynamic with a Jesse Livermore quote — 'There's nothing new under the sun' — and notes that management incentive misalignment remains as exploitable today as it was in the 1990s. [1] — Dan Loeb "Third Point started as a classic event-driven shop exploiting complexity — spin-offs, bankruptcies, privatizations — where management sandb…" 07:15
Third Point is no longer just a hedge fund. Loeb laid out a sprawling platform: long-short equity and credit, a CLO business, private credit and direct lending, and a wholly-owned insurance company that captures the investment-grade slice of the portfolio. Each business feeds the others.
Third Point started an insurance company (now 50% owned) to capture investment-grade private and public credit, structured credit, and whole loans, using surplus capital in differentiated ways.
AI can process data, but it can't look you in the eye. Loeb argued the irreplaceable human edge in investing is the social and relational layer — networks, trust, and the accountability that comes from a real person being responsible for gains and losses.
Chapter 5 · 16:01
The art of short selling and a homebuilder trade
Loeb and the besties dig into one of the hardest questions in modern investing: what constitutes a durable moat when technology disrupts everything? Loeb is refreshingly candid — the confident moat narratives of the past (IBM, AOL, Yahoo) frequently proved delusional. True durability comes less from product or technology and more from management teams with the adaptability to stay ahead of disruption. When David Sacks asks whether management quality can be quantified or systematised, Loeb's answer is a flat 'no.' After 30 years, it's still pattern recognition. The conversation pivots to the besties' own distribution regrets: Third Point sold Palantir in the $20s and sold its Enphase stake below $1 at IPO, leaving an estimated $4 billion on the table. Sacks adds that the $100 billion mental ceiling investors imposed in the Facebook era now looks laughably small in a world of multi-trillion-dollar companies. [1] — Dan Loeb "Third Point sold Palantir in the $20s and missed a near-10x run. It sold Enphase under $1 on the IPO and estimates leaving $4 billion on th…" 18:30
Third Point went short homebuilders with a two-part thesis: the industry was structurally impaired by hidden commitments to land pools it called 'options' (but weren't), and it was the last sector still suffering from unsustainable post-COVID price inflation that buyers could no longer afford.
Loeb shorted homebuilders on the thesis that the industry was the last to still be suffering a post-COVID inventory and pricing hangover while being structurally impaired by hidden land-pool commitments.
Third Point sold Palantir in the $20s and missed a near-10x run. It sold Enphase under $1 on the IPO and estimates leaving $4 billion on the table. The lesson: board seats restrict liquidity, and recalibrating upside expectations for a multi-trillion-dollar market era is the hardest skill in investing.
Third Point was a private investor in Palantir and sold all stock in the $20s, missing a subsequent 8–10x return as the stock soared after going public.
Third Point sold Enphase stock below $1 on the IPO and estimates the position would have returned approximately $4 billion had they held.
Facebook IPO'd at a $50 billion valuation; investors at the time thought $100 billion was the ceiling for any company — a framing that now looks absurd given multi-trillion-dollar market caps.
Dan Loeb called Nvidia absolutely undervalued on a 2–3 year earnings basis. Long-short funds are structurally incentivised to short it because it 'feels safe' — the same mistake made with Google and Amazon at comparable stages of dominance. The stock will eventually break out.
Dan Loeb stated Nvidia is absolutely undervalued on an earnings basis over the next 2 to 3 years, comparing market reluctance to similar past mistakes with Google and Amazon.
Chapter 6 · 22:15
Criminal justice reform and the Ross Ulbricht pardon
The episode's most surprising segment unfolds as Loeb walks through his involvement in the Ross Ulbricht pardon. He frames Ulbricht as sitting in the third category of his criminal justice taxonomy: not falsely convicted, but bearing a wildly disproportionate sentence — double life plus 40 years — for a crime that, while real, never included proven murder-for-hire charges. Introduced to the case through Reva Tez, a contact from Intel and friend of Olaf Carlsen-Wii, Loeb recognised the only path to freedom was a presidential pardon. He approached Charlie Kirk, who adopted the cause wholeheartedly and made it his sole personal ask of President Trump. A last-minute scare on the last day of Trump's 45th term — the Justice Department threatened to 'go after' Trump if he commuted the sentence — caused the commutation to be withdrawn. But four years later, Kirk pressed the case again, Trump followed through on a campaign promise to the crypto and libertarian communities, and Ulbricht received a full pardon. The twist that Loeb discovered just days before this recording: David Warrington, now White House Counsel, had been Ulbricht's personal attorney for a decade. Today, Ulbricht is married, expecting a child, and living freely. Loeb closes by describing his continuing work on individual cases through an organisation called Aleph, and his parallel fight against antisemitism. [1] — Dan Loeb "Dan Loeb was a key player in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon — approaching Charlie Kirk, who made it his sole ask of President…" 23:00
Dan Loeb was a key player in securing Ross Ulbricht's presidential pardon — approaching Charlie Kirk, who made it his sole ask of President Trump. The twist: Trump's then-attorney David Warrington, now White House Counsel, had already been Ulbricht's personal lawyer for a decade.
The wealth gap isn't about billionaires — it's about what we're not giving poor kids. Loeb, as chairman of Success Academies, argues the real culprit is union-protected school structures that strip out accountability and merit, and that proving education reform works doesn't require more money.
Loeb became chairman of Success Academies, a New York charter school network, arguing that income inequality's root cause is failing to equip vulnerable children with intellectual tools — not Jeff Bezos's wealth.
Loeb categorised prisoners into three groups: the falsely convicted, those showing contrition and rehabilitation, and those with disproportionate sentences — and argued each warrants different reform interventions.
Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht received a sentence of double life plus 40 years — a sentence Loeb and others argued was wildly disproportionate to the actual charges proven in court.
No indexed bits in this chapter.
Show stoppers
Snapshots ()
Key Quotes ()
This episode
Claims & Sources
Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.
Third Point manages almost $30 billion in assets under management.
Nvidia is undervalued on earnings over the next 2 to 3 years.
Facebook IPO'd at a $50 billion valuation.
Third Point sold its Enphase Energy position below $1 at IPO and estimates the position would have been worth approximately $4 billion if held.
Third Point sold its entire Palantir stake in the $20s, missing a subsequent 8–10x gain.
Ross Ulbricht received a sentence of double life plus 40 years for his role in operating Silk Road.
Ross Ulbricht was never prosecuted for the murder-for-hire allegations that the government raised.
Eric Mindich was the youngest partner in Goldman Sachs history, running the arb desk.
Atom Computing, a quantum computing company in Third Point's portfolio, received government funding under terms where taxpayers will make significant money on the investment.
David Warrington was Ross Ulbricht's personal attorney for approximately a decade before becoming White House Counsel.
Dan Loeb started investing at age 10 when his father took him to meet a stockbroker.
The homebuilding industry had massive hidden commitments to land pools that they categorised as options but were effectively hard capital commitments.
Jonathan Grobman received an 18-year prison sentence for dealing in gray market diapers and baby formula.
This episode
Cast
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Silk Road founder sentenced to double life plus 40 years; Dan Loeb was a key figure in securing his presidential pardon.
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Conservative activist who embraced the Ross Ulbricht cause, making it his sole ask of President Trump, which led to the pardon.
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Appaloosa Management founder; Dan Loeb covered him as a customer at Jefferies and cited him as a key influence on his investing thought process.
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Attorney who served as Ross Ulbricht's personal lawyer for a decade and later became White House Counsel under Trump, playing a key role in the pardon.
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Former Goldman Sachs youngest-ever partner who ran the arb desk; mentored Loeb's thinking on event-driven investing.
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Dan Loeb's multi-strategy hedge fund, grown to ~$30B AUM across equity, credit, CLOs, private credit, and insurance.
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Track
Dan Loeb argued Nvidia is undervalued on 2–3 year earnings and that shorting it mirrors historical mistakes with Google and Amazon.
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Investment bank where Dan Loeb worked on the distressed debt desk, describing it as his foundational '10,000 hours' of investing education.
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Discussed as an example of how investors in the early Facebook era massively underestimated long-term upside by capping expectations at $100 billion.
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Third Point was a private investor and sold its entire stake in the $20s, missing a near-10x gain.
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Crypto-based darknet marketplace run by Ross Ulbricht; his conviction for operating it led to Loeb's pardon campaign.
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Cited alongside Google as a prior example of a dominant company mistakenly treated as a 'safe short' by the market.
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Quantum computing company in Third Point's portfolio that has received government funding with terms Loeb described as a win-win for taxpayers and investors.
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Track
Third Point sold its Enphase position below $1 at IPO, missing an estimated $4 billion in returns.
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Dan Loeb cited Google as a historical example of a dominant company that was incorrectly treated as a 'safe short,' analogous to Nvidia today.
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New York charter school network; Dan Loeb became a supporter, board member, and ultimately chairman.
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Loeb misspoke and named Bear Stearns before correcting himself to PaineWebber, where he had a high school job at a branch office.
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Episode sponsor described as a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future.
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Acquired Radio Communications, an early Third Point venture investment in a Wi-Fi chip company co-spotted with partner Rob Schwartz.
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Dan Loeb's first formal job, where he learned to value enterprises across private equity and venture capital.
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