Podbit · The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway
Iran watched Pakistan, India, and North Korea avoid invasion by going nuclear. Now that the Strait of Hormuz card will expire in five years once Gulf pipelines are built, Himes predicts an ideologically hardened Iran will race toward a nuclear weapon as its permanent deterrent.
Where this was said
At 23:35 · chapter starts 22:25
Galloway asks the hardest question of the interview: under what scenario does Iran not control the Strait of Hormuz? Himes' answer is bracing in its directness: there essentially is no such scenario. [1] — Jim Himes "You don't need a navy to stop global shipping. Iran just needs to fly drones, and Lloyd's of London does the rest. Himes argues there is no…" 22:20 Treaties and agreements mean nothing when a few drones can stop the global flow of oil, helium, and fertiliser without sinking a single tanker — the moment one drone strikes a Singaporean cargo ship, Lloyd's of London and the insurance market do Iran's work for it. In the medium term, Himes expects an ugly deal where Iran charges 'fees and services' for ships transiting the strait. In the long term, the U.S. and Gulf states will build pipelines across the Arabian Peninsula to bypass the strait entirely. But here's the geopolitical trap: Iran knows this. Which means its Strait leverage expires in roughly five years. And Himes' conclusion is chilling — a more ideologically extreme Iran, having just survived a U.S. military campaign, will spend those five years racing to build a nuclear weapon, because Pakistan, India, and North Korea have proven that nuclear-armed states don't get invaded.
Himes predicted Iran will pursue nuclear weapons because it knows pipeline alternatives will render Strait of Hormuz control irrelevant within five years.
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