The AI Bubble: 14% Chance of Bursting by End of 2026

Anthropic apologized, SpaceX wants to buy Cursor & hairdrye… · Apr 25, 2026 Business

Polymarket defines the AI bubble bursting as any three of: Nvidia down 50%, semiconductor ETF down 40%, OpenAI or Anthropic bankruptcy, OpenAI acquired, or H100 rentals hitting $1 or less. Probability by December 2026: 14%. Not zero. The hosts put it closer to 5-10%.