Sherrod Brown has a +8 favorable rating in a state Trump won by 11. Yet he's down 3 in the polls — and getting almost exactly the same share of white non-college voters he got in 2024. The voters who are leaving Trump simply don't vote in midterms in Ohio.
Where this was said
At 1:01:30 · chapter starts 57:30
Dan zeros in on why Ohio and Iowa are so structurally difficult for Democrats. The voters leaving Trump are disproportionately younger and Latino — groups that are underrepresented in Ohio and Iowa, which are older and whiter than the national average. As Nate Cohn has noted in his poll analysis, many of the voters who have abandoned Trump don't vote in midterms — and Ohio in particular has a highly organized, high-turnout older white non-college electorate that shows up reliably. Jon admits he had hoped a midterm electorate would favor Democrats more than these polls suggest. Dan also points out that Ohio has been registered and organized within an inch of its life for decades — unlike North Carolina, Florida, or Texas, where large unregistered Democratic-leaning populations once offered a path to growth. Sherrod Brown's data, Dan notes, shows him getting almost exactly the same white non-college vote share he got in 2024 against a Trump wave. He simply cannot grow his coalition without either winning some Husted voters or convincing some Brown-to-Moreno switchers to come back — neither of which is easy.
Roy Cooper is up 7 in North Carolina with a D+6 generic ballot — and James Talarico is tied with Ken Paxton in Texas. Both states have growing diverse and young populations that don't exist in Ohio and Iowa, which is why Jon Favreau says Democrats must eventually win these states.
Ten years ago, 90% of tech media coverage was relentlessly negative and Kalanick felt he couldn't speak freely. Today, the rise of independent podcasters and Elon Musk buying Twitter has fundamentally changed the game — and it's why he's finally willing to talk.
Kay Classman, 28, was arrested for repeatedly posing as a 16-year-old and enrolling in Bronx high schools across multiple districts. She wasn't a predator — just someone so sad and lonely she wanted her lost childhood back. That's somehow sadder.
Disney, Meta, and Paramount have collectively paid Trump roughly $60 million to settle what Galloway calls nuisance lawsuits — all routed to his presidential library. Newsrooms are folding. The White House is handpicking press pool participants. This is what the end of a free press looks like.
One cheap fake documentary made by a teenager in his mother's basement convinced 16% of Americans that 9/11 was an inside job. Social media didn't invent conspiracy — it just gave it a rocket engine.
A progressive organization with a stated mission to destroy Turning Point USA received millions from ActBlue and is now publicly pushing the narrative that TPUSA insiders and Israel murdered Charlie Kirk. Andrew Wilson traced the network of accounts all amplifying the same conspiracy in perfect unison.
The microphone-bomb theory fails on every physical front: no smoke, no ignition, mic on the wrong side of the wound. And the .30-06 rifle round used is extensively documented by the US Army — it does not always produce a through-and-through wound. Wilson argues this is a well-studied projectile with well-understood behavior.
Andrew Wilson publicly offered Candace Owens $300,000 to debate her theory that Israel and TPUSA murdered Charlie Kirk. She refused. He argues that flat-earthers will debate anyone, but Kirk conspiracy theorists won't defend their claims under scrutiny.
Erika Kirk became the CEO of TPUSA while grieving her husband's murder in public, and now faces tens of thousands accusing her of conspiring to kill him. Andrew Wilson calls it mind-boggling psychological torture. The sparklers at the memorial weren't suspicious — they were a grieving widow doing her best in an impossible situation.
Joe Rogan and Andrew Wilson watch a bystander video of the Corey Ruiz police shooting in Madison, Wisconsin live on air. The video is so blurry they initially think a female officer fired the fatal shots. They later learn a male officer did, after Ruiz allegedly pulled a knife and stabbed officers. Their conclusion: you cannot have a hot take on a story you don't understand yet.
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