Podbit · The Bulwark Podcast
The US reportedly warned Poland that Russia may be preparing a military provocation to test NATO's resolve — echoing the intelligence warnings before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Miller says the real fear is that any Russian provocation gives Trump an excuse to declare escalation and back off support for Kyiv, which is exactly what Putin wants.
Where this was said
At 19:50 · chapter starts 18:50
Miller opens with a Politico Playbook excerpt that captures the European mood: 'poised but with a sense of foreboding,' allies 'holding their breath' as Trump heads to Ankara. He finds it telling — and somewhat annoying — that Europe is still letting Trump play the protagonist rather than treating him as the disruptive outsider he is. Kristol suggests some of it is strategic: European ambassadors know Trump reads these things and may be deliberately flattering his sense of importance. The more substantive concern is Ukraine. [1] — Tim Miller "The US reportedly warned Poland that Russia may be preparing a military provocation to test NATO's resolve — echoing the intelligence warni…" 19:50 A single-source Polish report claims the US warned Poland that Russia may be preparing a military provocation near NATO's eastern flank — not a full invasion, but the kind of troublemaking and false-flag operations designed to give Trump an off-ramp from Ukraine support. Miller draws a direct parallel to the intelligence warnings before February 2022 that many dismissed. The fear: any Russian provocation hands Trump an excuse to declare escalation and back away from Kyiv, which is exactly Putin's play.
The United States reportedly warned Poland that Russia could be preparing a military provocation to test NATO's resolve and weaken Western support for Ukraine, according to a single-source Polish report.
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