The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

Podbit · The Prof G Pod with Scott Galloway

What SpaceX's IPO Means for Tech Stocks, and Coping With Panic Attacks

Explore episode Jul 13, 2026

Where this was said

Are We in '99 or '97? The 40% Market Decline Warning

At 7:20 · chapter starts 6:10

This is the episode's most sweeping macro moment. Galloway cites GMO research establishing a historical relationship between market cap concentration and subsequent returns: every 1% increase in market cap in a given month has historically preceded a 7.5% decrease in 12-month stock market returns. The combined SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPOs will represent approximately 5% of all publicly traded US equity. Applying the GMO framework mechanically yields a projected 40% decline in the broader market over the next 1, 3, or 5 years. Galloway's comparison point is the dot-com bubble of 1999 — but he immediately complicates his own thesis with intellectual honesty. Analysts who called 1999 a bubble were often actually in 1997; the NASDAQ proceeded to double before the crash. The timing problem is paralyzing, and Galloway acknowledges it. His conclusion: don't try to time the market; instead, get properly diversified — a recommendation that turns out to be the structural backbone of the next chapter.

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