Excess Returns

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Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind

Explore episode Jun 16, 2026

Why do companies need the money? CapEx. Entirely CapEx. The reason why there are less share repurchases, more restricted stock unit sales, and more equity issuance.

Andy Constan

Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapE…

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The truth is no one knows the future. So what those assumptions mean are we should regulate this based on our own personal predictions of the future. But the history of being right about those predictions is pretty limited. And so we should be really careful about that because those are all self-serving.

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You can't have AI is both the most intelligent thing in the world and it generates gibberish hallucinations and the answers are wrong and you can't rely on it. Like those both can't be true at the same time.

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If AI were already wiping out huge swaths of jobs, we would see that in our data. And so whatever effect it's having, it's subtle right now.

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If it happens in a way that looks more like that China shock example, where we see whole categories of jobs wiped out more or less overnight, where it's not clear what direction you should go in because all the other careers you can imagine are also getting wiped out — that is the kind of disruption that could be really painful, not just for some individual workers, but for the economy as a whole.

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We just actually a few days ago got a statement that was signed by around 200 economists in which they warn that this could be an unprecedented transformation of our economy, larger than the Industrial Revolution, but unfolding over a vastly shorter period of time.

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