Excess Returns

Quote · Excess Returns

Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of the Buyback Tailwind

Explore episode Jun 16, 2026

I don't know how that plays out. There are people that think this is the end of humanity and there are people who think it's the beginning of another golden age. And I have no idea how it's gonna play out. What I do know is it's gonna be messy.

Andy Constan

Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapE…

Where this was said

Can AI create disinflationary productivity growth?

At 36:35 · chapter starts 35:29

Wait — this section actually continues Andy's analysis. Checking timestamps: the Columbia ad appears at the transcript around the 27-minute mark (≈1652s). Correcting: this chapter covers Andy's historical productivity analysis and the messy AI transition argument.

Society & Culture

It's Going to Be Messy — And That's Always Been True

Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapEx, and the End of th… · Jun 16, 2026 Society & Culture

Fear of technology ending jobs has happened every time a productivity revolution hit. It never did — because humans are wired to improve their situation. The 30-year-old displaced by AI has time to retool. The 15-year-old is already doing it. The transition will be painful, but it won't be final.

Humans want to have agency to improve their personal standard of living and their family's standard of living. If they're given a job or given a certain amount of money as a universal basic income, most are still going to try to make a personal effort to improve their situation in life.

Andy Constan

Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapE…

We're not gonna be like that WALL-E movie where we're gonna be sitting on our spaceship drinking, you know, obese drinking our sodas. We may already be doing that, I admit that.

Andy Constan

Andy Constan on the SpaceX IPO, AI CapE…

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