Quote · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter
Where this was said
IPO update: Anthropic at $3T, SpaceX float, Cerebras drops after breaking deal price
At 1:29:50 · chapter starts 1:24:42
Gavin Baker values Anthropic at $3T [1] — Gavin Baker "Gavin Baker believes Anthropic would trade at $3 trillion as a public company, with revenue on track to hit well over $100 billion by year …" 1:27:48 . SpaceX lockup fear may be overstated as employees bought on IPO. Cerebras breaks deal price triggering systematic sell-off [2] — Gavin Baker "When Cerebras broke IPO deal price, giant fund managers with an ironclad rule to sell regardless of fundamentals triggered a doom loop. Sho…" 1:29:25 — Gavin advises always price IPOs to never break deal price.
Gavin Baker believes Anthropic would trade at $3 trillion as a public company, with revenue on track to hit well over $100 billion by year end. The market can absorb this because it's simply a shift from private to public — and the float will only ever be a small slice of those totals.
Gavin Baker stated his belief that Anthropic would trade at approximately $3 trillion as a public company, with revenue projected well over $100 billion by year end.
Cerebras stock broke below its IPO deal price within two days of its first earnings report as a public company, triggering systematic selling by funds that exit any stock that breaks deal price.
When Cerebras broke IPO deal price, giant fund managers with an ironclad rule to sell regardless of fundamentals triggered a doom loop. Shorts pile in to push a stock through deal price, price-insensitive sellers dump, and the stock goes far lower than any rational valuation would suggest. The lesson: price your IPO so you never get there.
Gavin Baker recalled that when he was at Fidelity, he priced Uber at $14 billion in an early round and was pilloried in the press; the round ultimately closed at $17 billion.
