Quote · Dwarkesh Podcast
Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI?
Where this was said
Why demand collapse is unlikely
At 38:14 · chapter starts 30:02
Analysis of the Citrini AGI recession scenario. Negative growth requires wealthy capital owners to stop investing entirely — an implausible condition. Yale Budget Lab data shows no white-collar bloodbath yet. [1] — Alex Imas "For AGI to cause negative economic growth, rich capital owners would have to stop investing entirely — not just consume less, but refuse to…" 35:10
The Yale Budget Lab's analysis finds almost no signal of mass AI-driven unemployment across the economy, with junior developer hiring only slightly below trend rather than sharply declining.
For AGI to cause negative economic growth, rich capital owners would have to stop investing entirely — not just consume less, but refuse to build more data centers even as the technological frontier expands. Abundance causing recession requires conditions that have never existed in history.
For AI automation to cause negative economic growth, wealthy capital owners would need to completely stop investing — not just spend less — a condition economists consider nearly impossible.
