Quote · Excess Returns
The Trillion Dollar Gap | Aswath Damodaran on SpaceX, AI and the Big Market Delusion
Where this was said
How AI infrastructure is changing the Magnificent Seven
At 37:27 · chapter starts 35:17
Unlike the equity-funded dot-com boom, AI CapEx is debt-funded from private capital. A correction could trigger defaults that spill societal pain far beyond shareholders, echoing 2008. [1] — Aswath Damodaran "The dot-com bust was painful but contained — equity investors lost 60–90% and that was it. The AI CapEx cycle is different: it's the larges…" 36:35
The dot-com bust was painful but contained — equity investors lost 60–90% and that was it. The AI CapEx cycle is different: it's the largest infrastructure buildout Damodaran has ever seen, and it's substantially funded by private debt rather than equity. When the correction comes, defaults will spill pain into the broader economy, not just shareholders.
Unlike the dot-com boom which was equity-funded, the AI CapEx cycle is significantly funded by debt from private capital, meaning a correction could trigger defaults and societal spillover.
During the dot-com bust, equity investors bore losses of 60–90%, but those losses were contained to shareholders; by contrast, AI's debt-funded structure could create wider economic pain.
