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Trump's AI Stake, SpaceX's IPO Froth, and Apple's Siri Overhaul
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SpaceX IPO: The Largest in History and the Froth It Represents
At 43:05 · chapter starts 38:40
The SpaceX segment is the episode's most data-dense chapter. Kara sets the scene: the IPO is expected to be the largest in history, priced at $135 per share for a $1.77 trillion valuation, and the S&P 500 decided not to change its rules to fast-track the company onto the index. The headliner new development is Google's deal to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for 3 years of computing capacity — 110,000 NVIDIA chips — which Scott frames as circular but not irrational: Google already owns 6% of SpaceX (purchased in 2015 for a fraction of today's value), so every dollar it spends on compute inflates SpaceX's revenue base, which inflates Google's own equity stake by a 5x multiple. [1] — Scott Galloway "Google owns 6% of SpaceX — a stake it bought for a song in 2015 when SpaceX was worth $12 billion. Now it's paying SpaceX nearly $1 billion…" 39:55 The valuation, however — 94 times revenues — is what Scott calls the loudest froth signal in the market. He situates it in a broader AI sentiment shift, citing an MIT study finding 95% of CFOs say AI is not delivering the ROI they expected, and notes that business audiences are starting to eye-roll at AI promises the way they did dot-com promises in late 1999. His specific call: SpaceX will hit its all-time high on IPO day; if you get allocation, sell on the first trade. [2] — Scott Galloway "The Ellisons aren't killing 60 Minutes out of ideology — they've done the math. Scott Galloway argues that the economic upside of currying …" 14:20 He is least pessimistic about Anthropic among the major AI IPOs and thinks OpenAI could be the broken IPO of the cycle.
SpaceX is heading to market at 94 times revenues — a valuation Scott Galloway says is the clearest froth signal in the market right now. The Google compute deal looks circular: Google spends nearly $1B/month on SpaceX capacity, which inflates SpaceX's valuation, which inflates Google's own 6% stake. Everyone wins until the music stops.
SpaceX set its share price at $135, giving the company a valuation of roughly $1.77 trillion ahead of its Nasdaq debut.
Google agreed to pay SpaceX $920 million a month over 3 years for computing power including access to at least 110,000 NVIDIA chips.
Google owns 6% of SpaceX — a stake it bought for a song in 2015 when SpaceX was worth $12 billion. Now it's paying SpaceX nearly $1 billion a month for compute. Every dollar spent on that contract inflates SpaceX's revenue multiple, which inflates Google's own equity stake. It's circular, but it's not irrational.
Alphabet owns a 6% stake in SpaceX purchased in 2015 when SpaceX was valued at $12 billion; at $1.77T that stake is worth roughly $60 billion.
SpaceX is going public at 94 times revenues — a valuation Scott Galloway calls the clearest sign of market froth.
A new MIT study found 95% of CFOs say they're not getting the AI returns they expected. Scott Galloway senses a broader vibe shift — the job apocalypse hasn't materialized, the unicorn promises are unmet, and in business circles, AI hype is drawing giant eye rolls. He compares the moment to late 1999.
A study from MIT found that 95% of CFOs reported they are not getting the return on AI investment they initially anticipated.
