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Claude Opus 4.8, browser in Codex, tokenmaxxing, and the upcoming AI IPO bear case nobody wants to hear
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SpaceX IPO Bear Case: 100x Revenue, $550B Raise & TAM vs. GDP
At 1:00:15 · chapter starts 54:44
Three 2026 AI IPOs plan to raise $550B — more than all US IPOs from 2015 to 2025 combined. SpaceX enters at 100x revenue (NVIDIA trades at 25x), claims a TAM larger than China's GDP, and faces looming insider unlocks starting day 45. The emotional FOMO is real, but so is the math.
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic collectively aim to raise $550 billion in 2026 — more than all US IPOs combined from 2015–2025.
At a $1.75 trillion valuation, SpaceX is being priced at approximately 100x revenue, far above NVIDIA's 25x or Tesla's 16x.
SpaceX's S-1 doesn't sell a rocket company. It sells the world's biggest AI infrastructure story. The $28.5T TAM they claim is mostly AI and SaaS services, not launch contracts. The space business is only $5.5T of that — the rest is essentially competing with AWS.
Under SpaceX's lock-up schedule, 20% of additional shares hit the market on day 45, creating significant selling pressure soon after the IPO.
SpaceX claims a total addressable market of $28.5 trillion in its S-1 — larger than China's $19 trillion GDP and bigger than NVIDIA, Germany, Japan, UK, and India combined.
