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NYT/Siena Senate Polls: Big Picture and the Generic Ballot Problem
At 51:40 · chapter starts 51:25
Jon walks through the new NYT/Siena Senate polling: Mary Peltola down 2 in Alaska, Sherrod Brown down 3 in Ohio, Josh Turek down 2 in Iowa, while Graham Plattner leads by 2 in Maine and James Talarico is tied in Texas. Only Roy Cooper in North Carolina shows a clear lead, up 7. Dan calls this a 'painful reality check': these are very Republican states, Trump won all four by at least 11 points, and Republicans still lead the generic ballot by 6+ points even as Trump's approval in those states sits in the low-to-mid 40s. Jon's structural diagnosis is pointed: Democrats have done a good job making people in red states think Trump is a bad president, but have not made people in those states think the Republican senators are the reason Trump has been able to hurt them. The generic ballot — who do you want to control Congress — remains strongly Republican in states where Trump's approval is weak, which means voters are separating their dissatisfaction with Trump from their partisan preference for Senate control. That gap is the political problem Democrats must solve in the next four months.
New NYT/Siena polls show Democrats effectively tied in Alaska, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas Senate races, while Republicans lead the generic ballot by at least 6 points in those states. Trump's approval is bad but not bad enough in the right states — and voters still don't blame Republican senators.
Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 7 points in North Carolina, the clearest Senate leader among Democrats in any competitive race.
In the red states with key Senate races, 53% of voters say the Democratic Party is too far to the left, versus only 8% who say too far to the right.
The generic congressional ballot in North Carolina is Democrat plus 6, reflecting the state's shift toward Democrats and explaining Roy Cooper's strong position.
