Quote · Excess Returns
The 100 Year Thinkers: Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated
Where this was said
The Investor's Odyssey and playing the long game
At 58:45 · chapter starts 56:29
Three $1 trillion+ IPOs in 12 months prompts reflection on Greenspan's 'irrational exuberance' and what 'rational exuberance' — optimism grounded in logical assumptions — might look like. [1] — Chris Mayer "Within 12 months, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could all debut at over $1 trillion valuations. Ten years ago, the idea of Apple hitting $1…" 56:35
Within 12 months, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could all debut at over $1 trillion valuations. Ten years ago, the idea of Apple hitting $1 trillion seemed absurd. The question isn't whether it's possible — it's whether it's rational.
Within a 12-month span, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are expected to go public all with valuations of at least $1 trillion — an unprecedented concentration of mega-IPOs.
Every investor who buys a stock believes management will figure it out and reward them over time. That optimism is rational exuberance. The question Alan Greenspan couldn't answer — and neither can we — is exactly when it becomes irrational.
