Quote · Excess Returns
The $2 Trillion Question | Tobias Carlisle on SpaceX, the AI Buildout, and the Rotation No One Sees
Where this was said
ETF rebalancing, timing luck and systematic value investing
At 54:53 · chapter starts 54:17
Carlisle walks through his systematic process: financial statements first, Acquirer's Multiple for current price, 5-10 year lookback and projection, then equal weight across a range of quality tiers. [1] — Tobias Carlisle "The process is grounded entirely in financial statements: look at what a company earns on assets, its reinvestment rate, and its payout pol…" 51:00
Rebalancing monthly adds almost no extra return over quarterly, but annual rebalancing risks catastrophic timing luck — like having a September rebalance date in March 2009. Quarterly also captures a little momentum before cutting winners. It is the practical sweet spot for systematic value ETFs.
The Acquirer Fund ETF (ZIG) rebalances quarterly and Carlisle has the discretion to rebalance more frequently as an active fund, but chooses not to.
Rebalancing monthly adds little return versus quarterly, while annual rebalancing risks missing major bottoms like March 2009 by several months.
