AI task duration doubling every 7 months
Studies found that the duration of tasks AI could perform with 80% success was doubling every 7 months — and the doubling time was itself getting shorter.
Snapshot · Modern Wisdom
Why The AI Doomers Might Be Right - Robert Wright - #1122
Explore episode
Jul 11, 2026
Where this was said
The Singularity Debate: How Close Are We Really?
At 1:07:20 · chapter starts 1:06:28
Chris sketches his whiplash experience with AI timelines — convinced it was coming in 2017, dissuaded by 2020, then shocked by the post-GPT-4 acceleration — and asks Wright to locate the singularity debate. Wright says he sees more singularity happening than Chris does, and builds his case on three pillars. First, coding agents are already being used to build the next generation of models — the self-reinforcing feedback loop that defines singularity dynamics is already operational, at least in principle. Second, he cites evaluation studies (which he attributes to a group he can't immediately name) showing that the human-equivalent task duration AI could complete with 80% success was doubling every 7 months as of more than a year ago — with the doubling time itself getting shorter. Plot that on a standard graph and you get a line approaching the vertical. Third, the benchmarks are now so demanding that it is becoming difficult to even design tests and evaluate them within a single model generation. Finally, Wright offers his most original reframe: human superintelligence already exists — it is collective intelligence. Nobody at Boeing knows how to build an airliner, but Boeing collectively does. AI systems that communicate and collaborate with each other are the natural extension of this principle, and they are already beginning to do it.
AI Task Duration Doubling Every 7 Months — and Accelerating
Evaluation studies show the human-equivalent task duration that AI can complete with 80% success was doubling every 7 months — and the doubling time was itself getting shorter. Plot that on a standard graph and you don't get a smooth curve; you get a line approaching vertical.
AI task evals: doubling time getting shorter over 4 years
Evaluation studies tracking AI capability over roughly 4 years found not only exponential growth but an accelerating doubling time, making the studies themselves increasingly difficult to run.
AI Is Already a Form of Superintelligence — It's Called Collective Intelligence
Human superintelligence already exists — it's called collective intelligence. Nobody at Boeing knows how to build a plane, but Boeing collectively does. AI systems that can collaborate and communicate with each other are the natural next step, and they don't need to be individually superhuman to collectively surpass us.
Ed Fredkin Knew in the 1980s: International AI Collaboration or Catastrophe
MIT computer scientist Ed Fredkin told Robert Wright in the 1980s that the meaning of life was to create artificial intelligence — the next stage in intelligence's evolution. He also tried to launch a joint US-Soviet AI lab during the Cold War because he knew competitive national AI development would be catastrophic. He failed, and he told Wright: 'Now it's too late.'
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