My First Million

Snapshot · My First Million

Brainstorming business ideas with a billion-dollar founder

Explore episode Jul 10, 2026

Where this was said

Picking macros

At 25:45 · chapter starts 25:00

After firing his hedge funds and wealth managers — who had delivered a consistent and consistently disappointing 2.2% annual return over 10 years — Pincus took full control of his liquid portfolio. He split roughly 50/50 between private investments and self-managed public equities, eliminated all fixed income because he believes governments have no choice but to print money, and connected with Peter Thiel on macro investing for over 25 years. His best year came from reading Trump's tariff posture: he saw a good poker player who would have to do real damage before deals arrived, moved most of his liquid portfolio into gold in early 2025, then pivoted back into equities as tariff deals started landing. The result was approximately 35% on his whole liquid book. The current year has been far rougher: long Snapchat has been a loss, Bitcoin has hurt, and he is up only about 4.5%. He also describes 'collaring' his AI infrastructure holdings — Nvidia, Micron, and others trading at PEG ratios of 0.25-0.3 — to remove the stress of a position he loves too much but whose short-term CapEx story is uncertain.

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