Emad Mostaque predicted that KIMI K3's inference cost of $15 per million tokens will drop by 10 to 50 times in the next few months as American inference providers optimize it for NVIDIA hardware.
Snapshot · Moonshots with Peter Diamandis
Emad Mostaque predicted that KIMI K3's inference cost of $15 per million tokens will drop by 10 to 50 times in the next few months as American inference providers optimize it for NVIDIA hardware.
Where this was said
At 1:47:35 · chapter starts 1:41:30
The panel works through seven questions sourced from Diamandis's X post. Emad Mostaque on cost-effectiveness: KIMI K3 at $15/million tokens uses twice the tokens as GPT-5.6, but expects a 10–50x price drop as US inference providers optimize it for NVIDIA hardware [1] — Emad Mostaque "KIMI K3 price: $15/million tokens: KIMI K3 costs $15 per million tokens currently, compared to DeepSeek at $1, Sonnet at $20, Opus at $40, …" 1:46:55 . Salim Ismail on valuation: he maintains his estimate of 75% destruction from US frontier lab valuations, putting OpenAI at ~$250 billion from $1 trillion. Dave Blundin on open-source dynamics: large US model providers won't go open source, but KIMI K3 gives every enterprise a viable self-hosting path, accelerating the split between frontier-seekers (who pay Anthropic for Fable 5 to solve the hardest problems) and cost-optimizers (who self-host K3). Alex Wissner-Gross on US lab justification: the premise that valuations shrink due to K3 is fallacious — as with DeepSeek's original shock, Jevons paradox ultimately increases chip demand and total AI spend. On blocking K3: Wissner-Gross says it could be effectively constrained if corporations are required to disclose Chinese open-weight model use and face SEC-level scrutiny, but finds this highly undesirable. Salim Ismail dismisses blocking as futile — mirrors, peer-to-peer, VPNs make it trivially circumventable, and the only effect is denying American researchers and startups access.
KIMI K3 costs $15 per million tokens currently, compared to DeepSeek at $1, Sonnet at $20, Opus at $40, and Fable at approximately $60 per million tokens.
Salim Ismail estimated that KIMI K3's release, combined with US regulatory burden and open-source competition, has effectively reduced the value of US frontier AI labs by approximately 75%.
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