Amazon: 90% peak-to-trough drawdown
Amazon, one of the greatest long-term compounders in history, suffered a 90% drawdown from peak to trough at some point in its journey.
Snapshot · Excess Returns
The 100 Year Thinkers: Chris Mayer on SpaceX, AI Reckoning, and Why Early Is Overrated
Explore episode
Jun 27, 2026
Where this was said
Why labels like AI and quality can do too much work
At 11:20 · chapter starts 8:01
Using general semantics, Mayer warns that terms like 'AI' and 'TAM' can substitute for real analysis, encouraging investors to decompose businesses segment by segment. [1] — Chris Mayer "SpaceX is three very different businesses under one ticker. 'AI' means something different at Google, IBM, and a golf app. When a label doe…" 09:15
Labels Like 'AI' Do Your Thinking For You — Don't Let Them
SpaceX is three very different businesses under one ticker. 'AI' means something different at Google, IBM, and a golf app. When a label does your thinking, you skip the analysis — and that's where you get hurt.
SpaceX at 145x revenue
When SpaceX hit a $2.6 trillion market cap, it was trading at approximately 145 times revenue, far exceeding Google's IPO multiple of under 10 times revenue.
The AI Reckoning Is Coming
Every company is adding AI features because it's the thing to do — not because it solves a problem. The returns won't materialize, a pause will come, valuations will get crushed, and value-minded investors will pick up the real long-term winners at a discount.
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