Snapshot · Excess Returns
Carlisle traced the same investor over-excitement pattern through the telegraph boom, electronics boom, railway boom, dot-com boom, and now the AI boom — each ending with a crash.
Where this was said
At 37:18 · chapter starts 35:17
Carlisle argues that large-cap tech companies keep breaking historical growth base rates, but speculation is rife. Individually and collectively, S&P 500 names are expensive.
The pattern is the same every time: telegraph, railways, electronics, dot-com, and now AI. Investors get too excited, bid up picks-and-shovels sellers alongside the technology itself, and eventually everything returns to earth. The human behavioral response has never changed, even as the technology itself has transformed.
Joel de la Garza noted that the CISO role is a relatively recent invention, with Steve Katz widely credited as the first-ever CISO.
Superficial adoption of electricity gave factories only 6% efficiency gains; fully redesigning factories around it delivered a 3x productivity improvement that powered 20th-century US growth.
Harold Ramis recounted that during Caddyshack filming, storms kept the cast cooped up in a Florida hotel for days, during which they partied and did drugs all day and night.
In the 1820s, China accounted for 25% of global economic output, making it the world's largest economic machine — a historical precedent for its current AI superpower ambitions.
66 Americans held hostage at the US Embassy in Iran were released after 444 days, within hours of Reagan's inauguration.
In the first round of the secret arms deal, 508 TOW missiles were transferred from Israel to Iran in exchange for hostage releases.
America secretly transferred 2,000 missiles and missile parts to Iran across 8 separate shipments over just over a year.
Despite all the missile sales, only 3 of the 7 American hostages held by Lebanese terrorists were ultimately released.
The CIA supply plane that blew open the scandal was flying at only 2,500 feet in broad daylight when it was shot down on October 5, 1986.
We use essential and analytics cookies to run Vuci. To understand how the site is used: Privacy Policy.
Install Vuci on your phone
Add it to your home screen for a faster, app-like experience.
Install Vuci on your phone
Tap the Share button, then “Add to Home Screen”.
A new version is available
Reload to get the latest Vuci.