SpaceX down 35% from IPO
SpaceX dropped from an IPO peak of $229 to around $106, roughly 35% below IPO price, as $101 billion in insider share unlocks hit the market.
Snapshot · God Mode Podcast
SpaceX Down 35% From IPO | Cancelling Claude Max for Cursor and Codex | $800 in AI Subs, $50K of Code | DeepSeek Hikes Prices | 25 AI Predictions Graded | EP25
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Aug 8, 2026
Where this was said
The SpaceX bear case, graded
At 25:07 · chapter starts 25:02
Ten weeks ago on episode 15, Rik made a structured bear case for SpaceX in the near term, anchored on the $101 billion unlock ladder. Today, recording on 6 August 2026, that ladder is landing. The stock peaked at $229 on IPO day, faded to $108, briefly spiked to $125 on Elon's Nvidia news, and is now sitting at $106 — well below the IPO price. More than double the public float is becoming tradeable today as insiders and team members who bought in far earlier become eligible to sell. A clip from the episode 15 discussion is played back: Rik forecasted a pop followed by a significant dump once the unlock arrived, and that is precisely what happened. The lesson he draws is dual: the thesis was right, but the more important lesson for investors is that entry price and patience matter as much as narrative conviction. At current levels, he says, he is starting to get interested in SpaceX for the long term.
SpaceX Bear Case Confirmed: $101B Unlock Lands Exactly as Called
Ten episodes ago Rik laid out a SpaceX bear case centred on a $101 billion insider unlock. Today it's playing out live: the stock is 35% below IPO, more than doubling the public float. The lesson isn't just about SpaceX — it's about entry price mattering as much as thesis quality.
$101B in SpaceX share unlocks
SpaceX was facing $101 billion in share unlocks, more than doubling the public float from roughly 4–5% to about 11% of total shares.
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