Hyperscalers doubled debt ratios in 9 months
Major cloud and AI hyperscalers have roughly doubled their debt ratios in the past nine months as they finance massive data center buildouts.
Snapshot · Excess Returns
We Asked GMO’s Head of Asset Allocation Why This Bubble is Easy — But Investors Will Get it Wrong
Explore episode
Jun 24, 2026
Where this was said
Why massive stock issuance could challenge the market
At 37:00 · chapter starts 34:32
Ben Inker warns that SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and others could add 5-6% of US market cap as supply — historically the largest surge ever — with research suggesting 1% supply increases reduce returns by 7.5% [1] — Ben Inker "A 1% increase in stock market supply historically associates with a 7.5% worse return over the following year. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropi…" 37:35 .
The IPO Supply Shock That Could Hammer the Market
A 1% increase in stock market supply historically associates with a 7.5% worse return over the following year. SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic alone could add 5-6% of US market cap as supply. The real impact hits not at IPO but 12 months later as lockups expire.
5-6% of US market cap as new supply
If SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic and other large private companies go public, they could add 5-6% of US market cap as supply over the next 12 months — more than in living memory.
1% supply increase → 7.5% worse return
Historical data suggests a 1% increase in US stock market supply is associated with a 7.5% worse return over the subsequent year.
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