49% chance Fed hikes in 2026
Polymarket odds of a Fed rate hike in 2026 jumped to 49%, up from under 10% before the Iran war started.
Snapshot · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Anthropic's Fable Backlash, Nationalizing AI, Inflation Heats Up & California's Broken Elections
Explore episode
Jun 13, 2026
Where this was said
Inflation heats up: CPI and PPI see 3+ year highs
At 1:06:30 · chapter starts 1:05:39
Friedberg presents LA mayoral race statistics showing Pratt led in-person voting 35% to Raman's 26%, but post-election mail-in ballots flipped the result [1] — David Friedberg "On Election Day, Spencer Pratt led with 35%, Bass had 29%, Raman 26%. In mail-in ballots received after Election Day, Raman surged to 37% a…" 1:08:20 . He walks through California's ballot harvesting and voter registration laws [2] — David Friedberg "California legalized unlimited ballot harvesting, sends ballots to every registered voter whether they want one or not, lets anyone registe…" 1:09:45 .
CPI 4.2% — highest since April 2023
May CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest reading since April 2023, driven in part by the Iran war's energy shock.
PPI 6.5% — highest since end of 2022
May Producer Price Index hit 6.5% year-over-year, the highest since the end of 2022, signaling mounting upstream inflationary pressure.
The LA Mayoral Race Numbers That Don't Add Up
On Election Day, Spencer Pratt led with 35%, Bass had 29%, Raman 26%. In mail-in ballots received after Election Day, Raman surged to 37% and Pratt dropped to 19% — a one-third decline. Chamath says the odds of this happening randomly are one in a trillion. The question isn't whether something happened; it's whether it was legal.
LA mayoral Election Day: Pratt 35%, Bass 29%
On Election Day in-person voting, Spencer Pratt led with 35%, Karen Bass had 29%, and Nithya Raman had 26% — but post-election mail-in ballots flipped the results dramatically.
California's Election Laws Turned Elections Into Appointments
California legalized unlimited ballot harvesting, sends ballots to every registered voter whether they want one or not, lets anyone register with no citizenship proof, and requires almost no signature verification. None of these laws individually look fraudulent. Together, they create a system where elections are functionally appointments.
Ballot harvesting legalized in CA 2018
California Assembly Bill 1921, passed around 2018, legalized unlimited ballot harvesting — allowing any individual to collect and submit ballots for others regardless of relationship.
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