MGM's Japan casino worth ~$50/share
MGM's license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan — estimated at $2B EBITDA on their 40% stake — is valued at roughly $50 per share of standalone upside.
Snapshot · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
Explore episode
Jun 12, 2026
Where this was said
Suvretta Capital's Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts
At 8:00 · chapter starts 2:31
Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts as an Asian casino play: Barry Diller's 26% stake and $48 bid provide a floor, while a 2030 Osaka casino and Dubai optionality could push the stock from $48 to $100–$150.
Barry Diller owns 26% of MGM, bid $48/share
Barry Diller has aggressively accumulated MGM Resorts stock to 26% ownership and made a formal bid at $48 per share.
Japan gambling market ~$40B
Japan's existing gambling market (pachinko and horse racing) is roughly $40 billion, larger than both Macau ($30B) and Las Vegas ($10B).
MGM total upside: $150+/share
Adding Vegas ($60), Japan ($50), and a Dubai casino option ($40–50), Aaron Cowen estimates MGM could be worth over $100–$150 per share, against a current price in the high $40s.
Don't Tender — MGM Could Be Worth $150
Vegas assets (~$60/share) + Japan ($50/share) + Dubai optionality ($40-50/share) = $100-$150 stock from the high $40s. And Barry Diller, who is a financial buyer not a strategic one, has now shown his cards. Don't tender.
The Anatomy of a Power Cycle — and Why Talen Wins
Power demand tracks GDP until a technological breakthrough hits — like appliances, then computers, now AI. The US had 2x China's power capacity two decades ago; China now has 3x ours. Talen Energy sits at the epicenter of a mandatory infrastructure buildout with no room for failure.
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