The a16z Show

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Is AI a Bubble? | Gavin Baker on Data Centers, GPUs, and the AI Economy

Explore episode Jul 14, 2026

Where this was said

The SaaS Disruption Debate: From Zero to Nuanced

At 18:37 · chapter starts 14:50

In early 2024, Baker publicly predicted all application SaaS might be worth zero. He's moderating that view — some application SaaS companies, especially those serving fragmented SMB markets, could be big winners. But the competitive threat remains acute and the window is narrowing. He draws an analogy to retailers who saw Amazon's thin margins and decided they didn't want to compete — a mistake that took 25 years to fully reveal itself. For SaaS companies today, the equivalent mistake is protecting existing gross margin structures to preserve stock prices. Baker is direct: it's definitionally impossible to succeed in AI without gross margin pressure, and Microsoft and Adobe both prove that a software company can navigate a margin-compressing transition and still produce a decade of strong returns. The most urgent example is Cursor, which has accumulated 1 trillion coding tokens — a data flywheel that incumbent public coding companies have inexplicably failed to challenge. The window to compete, he warns, is closing.

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