$5B fund returning 1.01x = 75th percentile
A $5B fund returning just 1.01x still lands in the 75th percentile of VC, illustrating the broken incentive structure of large fund management.
Snapshot · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Bill Maris: How Google Could Crush AI Competitors, Why Small Funds Win, and AI's Atari Stage
Explore episode
Jun 9, 2026
Where this was said
VC's broken incentives and the future of deep tech
At 27:28 · chapter starts 25:23
The conversation turns darker when Friedberg raises the question of whether China and other countries are becoming more attractive destinations for scientific investment and talent. Maris doesn't hedge: the gutting of the CDC and NIH, combined with H-1B visa restrictions and what he calls an 'anti-science vibe,' has made it easier for scientists to just go elsewhere. [1] — Bill Maris "The gutting of the CDC and NIH, H-1B restrictions, and a pervasive anti-science cultural shift in the US are driving scientific talent to C…" 23:00 Friedberg adds that China has its own 'paperclip model' — aggressively recruiting top scientists from Europe and India, talent pools that used to flow to the United States. Maris is not triumphalist about this; he simply notes it's damaging, and calls for the 'neurological reserves' the US needs to maintain scientific leadership.
OpenAI's Valuation Problem: $1T in Commitments, $60B in Revenue
OpenAI is heading toward a public market with roughly $1 trillion in spend commitments against only $60 billion in revenue. Maris is skeptical retail investors and passive funds can absorb these valuations — and notes the S&P 500 rules are already being bent to accommodate them.
OpenAI: $1T spend commitments on $60B revenue
Bill Maris highlighted the mismatch between OpenAI's ~$1 trillion in spend commitments and only $60 billion in revenue, questioning the IPO math.
Venture's Broken Incentive Structure
VC incentives are broken at every level: LPs write big checks to big funds to avoid blame, GPs earn more in management fees at 1.01x on $5B than at 3x on $500M, and naive founders take inflated $4B valuations over disciplined $100M ones. The pendulum will swing back — but not yet.
GP earns more on $5B/1.01x than $500M/3x
The fee structure means a GP managing a $5B fund at 1.01x makes more money than one running a $500M fund at a 3x return.
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