Centricorn 10x odds: 31%
Companies valued at $100B or more (centricorns) have a 31% chance of achieving a further 10x — far higher than the 8–13% odds at earlier stages.
Snapshot · All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
Thomas Laffont: The $4T AI IPO Wave, 2026's Unicorn Economy, and the 10X Paradox
Explore episode
Jun 4, 2026
Where this was said
The 10x Paradox: Why we're seeing unprecedented scaling
At 14:40 · chapter starts 10:38
SpaceX is the topic everyone at the All-In Summit wants to discuss, and Laffont comes prepared with an original analytical framework. The key finding: the number-one driver of SpaceX's valuation is launch cadence — but even more interesting is that SpaceX's valuation per launch has been rising even as it launches more. [1] — Thomas Laffont "SpaceX's valuation per launch keeps rising as launch cadence increases — not because of rockets, but because of constellations. Each additi…" 07:45 This would seem to defy economics, but Coatue's explanation is elegant: each new satellite constellation adds not just customers, but a recurring revenue business — and recurring revenue is far more valuable than the one-time government contracts of early rocketry. The Code Tour framework maps SpaceX's evolution through four phases: pre-constellation, initial ramp with one constellation (Starlink), scaling to multiple constellations serving militaries and corporations, and ultimately becoming a full platform with adjacent businesses including space data centers and lunar applications. The platform phase, Laffont argues, is where the truly extraordinary value accumulates.
The 10x Paradox: Centricorns Beat the Odds
Unicorns have only an 8% shot at becoming decacorns. But cross $100 billion, and your odds of a 10x jump to 31%. The largest companies have durable compounding advantages that make them more likely — not less — to keep scaling.
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