Snapshot · Hard Fork
Mark Zuckerberg directed a small team at Meta to build a prediction-market app called Arena, initially using fake money but with real-money wagering not ruled out.
Where this was said
At 1:05:46 · chapter starts 1:03:10
Kevin describes a Wall Street Journal investigation into Polymarket's social media creator strategy: more than 1,100 videos from 10 creators were analyzed, and 70% of the bets shown were never actually placed. [1] — Kevin Roose "The Wall Street Journal analyzed over 1,100 Polymarket influencer videos across 10 creators and found that 70% of the bets shown never actu…" 1:03:10 The 118 videos showing creators winning implied nearly $900,000 in total winnings — but if those bets had been real, the same people would have lost over $166,000. Casey is delighted: the investigation inadvertently identified the only surefire way to profit from Polymarket — be the creator lying about everything in sponsored videos. Kevin adds that the other guaranteed method is insider trading, 'but that one doesn't play as well on camera.'
The Wall Street Journal analyzed over 1,100 Polymarket influencer videos across 10 creators and found that 70% of the bets shown never actually occurred. Videos showed creators 'winning' nearly $900,000 — but if those bets had been real, those same people would have lost more than $166,000. The actual guaranteed way to make money on Polymarket: be the influencer making the fake videos.
The Wall Street Journal analyzed more than 1,100 Polymarket influencer videos and found that 70% showed fake bets — none were real — and winners would have actually lost over $166,000.
Polymarket influencer videos suggested creators won nearly $900,000 in total, but if those bets had been real, the same creators would have lost more than $166,000.
Mark Zuckerberg has directed a small team to build a prediction-market app called Arena, starting with fake money but with real-money wagering firmly on the table. Kevin Roose and Casey Newton predict it will inevitably integrate into Instagram and Facebook — and that a company already mired in addiction lawsuits is now deliberately chasing gambling, the most reliably addictive behavior of all.
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