50% chance AI does its own R&D by late 2028
Daniel Kokotajlo's current best estimate is a 50% probability that AI systems capable of autonomous AI R&D will exist by late 2028.
Snapshot · Hard Fork
‘Hard Fork’ Live, Part 3: Differing Visions of an A.I. Future
Explore episode
Jun 19, 2026
Where this was said
Introducing the Debate: AI 2027 vs. AI as Normal Technology
At 4:27 · chapter starts 2:48
Casey Newton introduces the debate segment with palpable excitement, explaining that both guests have appeared together before at a conference called The Curve and that their views have evolved since. Kevin Roose provides biographical context: Kokotajlo as co-author of the vivid AI 2027 scenario report, and Kapoor as a Princeton researcher whose 'AI as Normal Technology' essay has become a counter-thesis. The audience is primed for a genuine intellectual clash.
Daniel Kokotajlo's Updated Timeline: 50% Chance of AI Self-R&D by Late 2028
Kokotajlo now puts 50% odds on AI systems capable of doing their own AI research arriving by late 2028. He notes this is actually a bit more conservative than Anthropic's internal projections, because things always take longer than planned.
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