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Daniel Kokotajlo's current best estimate is a 50% probability that AI systems capable of autonomous AI R&D will exist by late 2028.
The European Commission is weighing an EU-wide ban on social media access for children under 16, following a panel report due Monday.
Daniel Kokotajlo puts a 70% probability on AI development leading to catastrophic outcomes such as AI takeover or something approaching human extinction.
Daniel Kokotajlo's 50% probability estimate for the arrival of superintelligence is currently 2029, with a strong possibility it happens by end of the decade.
If governments wait until mass unemployment sets in before regulating AI, it will already be too late — the companies' strategy is to achieve superintelligence first, then automate jobs.
From 175 billion parameters in 2020 to approximately 10 trillion today, AI models have grown by roughly two orders of magnitude in six years.
AI 2027 vastly exceeded Kokotajlo's own pre-publication readership forecasts, reaching what he estimates as a 90th percentile outcome in views.
In the AI 2040 Plan A scenario, one fifth of all cognitive labor is projected to be performed by AI by 2031.
In the AI 2040 scenario, by 2033 there are 60 million AIs operating at 100 times human cognitive speed, dramatically transforming the economy.
Apple's lawsuit alleges OpenAI advised departing employees not to disclose their next employer and coached them on avoiding immediate 'walkout' termination to preserve access to Apple's confidential data.
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