Data point
2012
Figma, the AI and web-based design application led by Dylan Field, was founded in 2012 and has since gone public.
Snapshot · Hard Fork
‘Hard Fork’ Live, Part 2: Dylan Field on Standing Out in the A.I. Era
Explore episode
Jun 17, 2026
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16
The European Commission is weighing an EU-wide ban on social media access for children under 16, following a panel report due Monday.
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70%
Daniel Kokotajlo puts a 70% probability on AI development leading to catastrophic outcomes such as AI takeover or something approaching human extinction.
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2029
Daniel Kokotajlo's 50% probability estimate for the arrival of superintelligence is currently 2029, with a strong possibility it happens by end of the decade.
Regulation must come before 2030
If governments wait until mass unemployment sets in before regulating AI, it will already be too late — the companies' strategy is to achieve superintelligence first, then automate jobs.
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100x
From 175 billion parameters in 2020 to approximately 10 trillion today, AI models have grown by roughly two orders of magnitude in six years.
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90th %ile
AI 2027 vastly exceeded Kokotajlo's own pre-publication readership forecasts, reaching what he estimates as a 90th percentile outcome in views.
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20%
In the AI 2040 Plan A scenario, one fifth of all cognitive labor is projected to be performed by AI by 2031.
Data point
100x
In the AI 2040 scenario, by 2033 there are 60 million AIs operating at 100 times human cognitive speed, dramatically transforming the economy.
OpenAI coached resignations
Apple's lawsuit alleges OpenAI advised departing employees not to disclose their next employer and coached them on avoiding immediate 'walkout' termination to preserve access to Apple's confidential data.
