Statistical models had predicted a strong earthquake in Venezuela for years, yet the country was unprepared for the disaster.
Snapshot · The Daily
Statistical models had predicted a strong earthquake in Venezuela for years, yet the country was unprepared for the disaster.
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At 11:00 · chapter starts 9:20
The earthquake was powerful, but the death toll was also shaped by decades of political decision-making. Karmanayev identifies Hugo Chávez's Gran Misión Vivienda — the grand housing project — as a central culprit. Built rapidly across Venezuela to deliver homes to the poor around election time, these thousands of social housing blocks were a potent political tool. But there are growing indications that construction quality was sacrificed for speed and optics. Many of the buildings that caused the most deaths were from this program. Venezuela sits in a well-documented earthquake-prone zone; statistical models had flagged the risk of a major quake for years. That the country was nonetheless unprepared points to political choices, not just geological bad luck.
Hugo Chávez's flagship social housing program, Gran Misión Vivienda, built thousands of blocks rapidly for electoral purposes, and many of those buildings collapsed in the earthquakes due to corner-cutting in construction.
Under Chávez, Venezuela's oil wealth funded a sprawling welfare state. When oil prices collapsed and US sanctions hit, Delcy Rodríguez dismantled it. The state stopped providing basic services. People fended for themselves. That worked during stability — but when the earthquake struck, there was nothing left to coordinate a response.
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