More than $5 billion has already been traded on World Cup outcomes across Polymarket and Kalshi, exceeding comparable Las Vegas volumes for the same period.
Snapshot · Pivot
More than $5 billion has already been traded on World Cup outcomes across Polymarket and Kalshi, exceeding comparable Las Vegas volumes for the same period.
Where this was said
At 46:23 · chapter starts 45:00
Kim McKenzie of Ladies to Strategize opens the Q&A by asking whether prediction markets will function as legitimate polling data. Kara is sceptical: she views them as one more signal among many, easily gamed by billionaires with deep pockets and an interest in shaping sentiment. She specifically cites Elon Musk as a potential manipulator heading into the midterms. Scott is more bullish — he uses Kalshi constantly and argues it has a perfect track record on Fed decisions. He draws a distinction between pundit opinion and where people actually put money, arguing the latter is a far more honest signal. Both agree that prediction markets need to self-regulate quickly or state-level regulators will come for them, and the World Cup is about to expose just how large the numbers have grown.
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