Modern warfare hardware cycle: 6 months
Modern warfare requires new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months, making long-lead 15-year weapons programmes strategically obsolete.
Snapshot · The Rest Is Politics
544. How Trump Is Weaponising AI and Martial Arts at the White House
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Jun 17, 2026
Where this was said
Ukraine, Iran and What War Actually Looks Like Now
At 25:05 · chapter starts 23:00
Stewart offers a bracing taxonomy of modern warfare. Ukraine represents one model: endless cheap hovering drones, frozen frontlines, software updated every few weeks and hardware every few months. Iran represents the other: the fulfilment of the US-Israeli planners' dream, where exquisite precision-guided munitions wipe out all enemy air defences within 24 hours, after which fancy aircraft can operate freely. Britain, faced with a potential Russia threat to Europe, has to choose: does it build for the Ukrainian model of defence in depth and mass drones, or for the US-Israeli model of ultra-expensive high-precision strikes? Stewart's answer is that neither choice justifies the GCAP programme — and that the real investment should go into the engineers, manufacturing capacity and AI infrastructure to produce new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months rather than betting on any specific exquisite platform [1] — Rory Stewart "Modern warfare hardware cycle: 6 months: Modern warfare requires new software every 6 weeks and new hardware every 6 months, making long-le…" 25:05 .
Ukraine vs Iran: Two Models of Modern War
Ukraine is a war of cheap hovering drones and frozen frontlines. Iran was the dream of US-Israeli planners — exquisite expensive aircraft taking out all air defences in 24 hours. Britain has to decide which model it is building for, and neither answer justifies a fighter jet that won't arrive until 2040.
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