98%+ incumbents win renomination since 1946
From 1946 to 2024, more than 98% of House incumbents have won renomination, making two losing on the same night a rare and significant event.
Where this was said
New York Primary Upsets: The DSA Goes 3 for 3
At 27:40 · chapter starts 24:10
Jon Favreau walks through the three races: In the 7th District, Claire Valdez won an open seat. In the 10th, progressive Brad Lander — a citywide official backed by Mayor Mamdani — defeated incumbent Dan Goldman in a race largely about Israel. The biggest shock came in the 13th, where four-term Congressman Adriano Espaillat, head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and the first undocumented immigrant to serve in Congress, lost to Darielyza Avila Chevalier, a DSA-aligned community organizer who supports abolishing prisons, police, and all deportations. The hosts note that mainstream Democrats also won elsewhere in New York that night, but the three headline losses are dominating the conversation. Audio clips from James Carville demanding a party schism, Mamdani celebrating the democratic energy, and Hakeem Jeffries refusing to take the bait and keeping focus on Trump anchor the segment's emotional texture.
Two Incumbents Lose the Same Night — That Almost Never Happens
From 1946 to 2024, over 98% of House incumbents have won their party primaries. Two losing on the same night — including the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus — is genuinely extraordinary. This isn't a 'Dems will be Dems' moment to wave away.
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