The governor of Texas controls redistricting power that affects 10% of U.S. congressional seats, making the 2026 race one of the most consequential in the country.
Where this was said
At 1:33:20 · chapter starts 1:33:10
Jon Favreau asks the case for prioritizing Texas over other competitive races. Hinojosa's answer is structural and stark: after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, Texas Republicans have promised to redraw congressional maps next year. Under a Republican governor, Democrats could lose 5 congressional seats immediately, with another 4 to 5 following census-driven seat gains — a total of nearly 10 seats gone. The Texas governor controls 10% of Congress. [1] — Gina Hinojosa "Texas will redraw congressional maps next year with no Voting Rights Act guardrails. If Republicans control the governorship, Democrats cou…" 1:33:10 She frames this as existential for any Democratic path to a House majority. The screwworm crisis — a flesh-eating livestock parasite eradicated 60 years ago and now back in Texas due in part to DOGE-driven federal cuts to prevention programs — illustrates the cost of Abbott's inability to push back on Trump even when Texas ranchers suffer. Abbott has said nothing critical of the administration despite a Texas Secretary of Agriculture in the cabinet. Favreau closes the interview by noting that as Midwestern states drift redder, Texas's growth and potential flip become mathematically necessary for Democratic presidential math as well. The episode ends with credits and a tease of Dan Pfeiffer's upcoming interview with Strict Scrutiny's Leah Lippman.
Texas will redraw congressional maps next year with no Voting Rights Act guardrails. If Republicans control the governorship, Democrats could lose 5 seats immediately, plus 4 to 5 more after the census adds congressional seats. The Texas governor effectively controls 10% of Congress. That's why Gina Hinojosa says this is the most important governor's race in the country.
In the last Trump midterm — 2018 — Democrats swept the Texas legislative landscape, flipping 12 House seats and all of Harris County, but weren't fully organized. This time Democrats have candidates in every congressional, state house, and state senate seat, and already outperformed Republicans in the primary. Hinojosa's primary vote total was double Beto's 2018 primary haul.
In 2026, Democrats outperformed Republicans in the Texas primary, a rare occurrence, with Gina Hinojosa getting twice as many votes as Beto O'Rourke received in 2018.
Democrats flipped a Texas state Senate seat in Tarrant County — once the most Republican county in the US — swinging it 31 points.
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