Snapshot · The Rest Is Politics
To find a governing party candidate increasing their actual vote numbers on this scale in a by-election, you have to go back to Kevin McNamara in Hull in 1966.
Where this was said
At 6:10 · chapter starts 3:29
Rory Stewart opens the analysis by putting the result in its proper statistical context. Makerfield was prime Reform territory — two-thirds had voted Brexit — and Labour trailed by 20 points in the May local elections. Burnham not only reversed that deficit but won with a 20-point lead, increasing his party's vote share by 10 points against the national trend. Greens, Lib Dems, and Conservatives were each reduced to about 1–2% of the vote. Alastair Campbell reaches into historical footnotes: for a comparable increase in by-election turnout over a general election, you have to go back to Mark Bonham Carter's Liberal win in Torrington in 1958; for a governing party candidate actually increasing their raw vote totals, you have to go to Kevin McNamara's Labour victory in Hull in 1966 — the year more associated with England's World Cup triumph.
Andy Burnham won Makerfield with 55% of the vote and a 20-point lead over Reform — in a constituency that had the sixth-highest Reform vote at the last general election and where Labour trailed by 20 points in local elections weeks earlier. Even combining Reform and Restore's votes wouldn't have beaten him.
Two-thirds of voters in the Makerfield constituency had voted for Brexit, underlining its status as prime Reform territory.
Despite Labour trailing Reform by 20 points in local elections just weeks earlier, Burnham won with a 20-point lead over Reform.
Labour's vote share fell 19 points in Aberdeen South and 18 points in Arbroath — the opposite trajectory to Makerfield.
Even if Reform and Restore had combined their votes, they still would not have beaten Andy Burnham in Makerfield.
A 23% swing from Reform to Labour was recorded in the seats Reform had taken from Labour in the May local elections.
The 23% swing from Reform to Labour in Makerfield answers the question keeping Labour MPs awake at night: there is a way to stop Reform. Burnham did it without radical right-wing rhetoric, without stealing Farage's language, and without abandoning progressive politics.
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