The Ben Shapiro Show

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Friendly Fire: The JD Vance Debate, Midterm Madness & Return of the Firing Squad

Explore episode Jul 2, 2026

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Midterm Outlook: Socialists, Senate Map, and Republican Risks

At 35:01 · chapter starts 34:55

Cabot Phillips joins and frames himself as the 'delusional optimist': despite 3-4 months of bad news, Democrats have only gained about half a percent on the generic ballot, suggesting a ceiling on their momentum. New socialist candidates give Republicans targets to run against, and the redistricting war went to Republicans. But Ben Domenech provides the corrective: midterms are going to be terrible for Republicans. A New York Times poll has Ken Paxton tied with James Talarico in Texas, with Paxton losing Hispanics dramatically — a stark contrast to Ted Cruz's 2022 performance. The Supreme Court's birthright citizenship ruling forces Paxton to lean into a losing issue while Talarico gets a free pass on transgender sports — precisely the issue that wrecked Colin Allred in 2022. Democrats in Alaska are running a candidate with the same name as Dan Sullivan. Republicans are fighting each other in Washington instead of running a coherent message. Cabot adds that Democratic leadership — including JB Pritzker and Kamala Harris — is being forced to publicly embrace socialist candidates for fear of being 'eaten,' which will shift the party's national image further left.

Government
The Midterm Math Nobody Wants to Hear

Friendly Fire: The JD Vance Debate, Midterm Madness & Retur… · Jul 2, 2026 Government

Democrats haven't surged on the generic ballot, but Republicans face a brutal map, a red-carded Texas Senate race, and DSA candidates forcing party leadership left. Ben Domenech's verdict: midterms are going to be terrible for Republicans, and the Supreme Court just handed Democrats the perfect escape hatch on transgender sports.

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