Alien disclosure odds: 14%
Polymarket gives only a 14% chance the US government will confirm alien life or technology before 2027, with $38 million in real money traded on the outcome.
Snapshot · The Shawn Ryan Show
#316 Brian Keating - The First Object Ever Found From Another Solar System
Explore episode
Jun 25, 2026
Where this was said
Polymarket Odds and the Alien Disclosure Ecosystem
At 14:28 · chapter starts 12:40
Shawn Ryan drops a striking data point: Polymarket's prediction market gives only a 14% chance that the US government will officially confirm alien life or technology before 2027, with real money bets totaling $38 million. Keating uses this as a jumping-off point to discuss Trump's alien-adjacent social media activity, arguing that it reflects political savvy rather than genuine disclosure intent. The discussion briefly turns to parenting philosophy — Keating argues he wants his sons to actualize their own potential rather than emulate any public figure, and that both biological and ideological fatherhood matter for civilization.
Antarctica: The Most Extreme Place on Earth
Getting a job at the South Pole is harder than getting into Harvard. The station has one gun, no dentist, and if you miss the February 15th departure, you're there until November. In July, residents celebrate the '300-degree club' by running naked around the South Pole.
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