The Charlie Kirk Show

Snapshot · The Charlie Kirk Show

Charlie’s 4th of July Flashback + Larry Arnn on the Founder’s Key

Explore episode Jul 3, 2026

Where this was said

House Races, Pennsylvania Poll, and Third-Party Dynamics

At 30:46 · chapter starts 26:00

Tyler maps out the House landscape: Democrats were banking on pickups in New York and California, targeting seats like Lauren Boebert's in Colorado and one or two in Arizona. But if Biden drag depresses Democratic turnout even in blue-leaning districts — as it did in 2022 — those gains evaporate and the House majority becomes precarious for Hakeem Jeffries. Charlie then pulls out a Cygnal poll showing Trump up 4 points in Pennsylvania after the debate, outside the margin of error, with the lead holding even in multi-candidate scenarios. The hosts debate whether third-party candidates like RFK Jr. help or hurt Trump, with Tyler arguing they actually make it harder for Democrats to chase voters because the targeting math gets more complicated. Blake notes Biden's approval numbers are 'substantially below Kamala, substantially below Hillary Clinton at her worst,' suggesting the party's position is uniquely dire.

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