70% chance AI goes horribly wrong
Daniel Kokotajlo puts a 70% probability on AI development leading to catastrophic outcomes such as AI takeover or something approaching human extinction.
Snapshot · The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
OpenAI Whistleblower FINALLY Speaks: “AI Has A 70% Chance Of Going Horribly Wrong!“
Explore episode
Jul 13, 2026
Where this was said
What Are the Real Odds of Human Extinction From AI?
At 41:06 · chapter starts 40:55
Steven Bartlett raises the figure he heard from a friend connected to AI CEOs — that some of them put the probability of extinction at around 7%, and asks whether that's enough to warrant concern. He then confronts Kokotajlo with the 70% figure Kokotajlo himself stated on The Daily Show. Kokotajlo clarifies: the 70% is for 'something catastrophic like human extinction' rather than necessarily literal extinction — the AIs could take over and not kill everyone, for instance. But the core point stands. Bartlett then pushes on whether the AI CEOs privately believe their own products could be existential risks. Kokotajlo says yes — but explains the rationalisation process: each has convinced themselves it will probably be fine, and that their own involvement is necessary to prevent an even worse outcome if a less trustworthy rival gets there first. He notes Anthropic and Dario have been more willing than others to say and do things that cost them commercially — but immediately adds that none of these people should be trusted with this much power, regardless.
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