Snapshot · The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
Daniel Kokotajlo's 50% probability estimate for the arrival of superintelligence is currently 2029, with a strong possibility it happens by end of the decade.
Where this was said
At 4:01 · chapter starts 2:14
Kokotajlo begins the formal interview by defining his mission: if superintelligence is coming in a few years, civilisation needs to prepare. His median estimate puts it at 2029, with a strong probability it happens before the end of the decade. He grounds this not just in technical progress but in economic data: Anthropic grew from roughly $1 billion to $60 billion in annual revenue in a single year — a 60x increase he describes as possibly the fastest in corporate history. Even if that rate slows dramatically, the company is on track to rival the entire global economy by 2030. He explains why the average person should care: superintelligence will affect absolutely everything, could kill people, could eliminate jobs, could enable the rise of oligarchs, or could trigger geopolitical conflict. He describes the 'scary open secret' — that ensuring a superintelligent AI actually has the values you want is currently just a hope, not a solved problem. He distinguishes AGI (broad capability, arguably already here) from superintelligence (better than any human at everything, faster and cheaper), and discusses the coming overlap with robotics.
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