In the AI 2027 scenario, widespread job loss doesn't occur until 2028–2029, after superintelligence has already been achieved — not as a precursor.
Snapshot · The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
In the AI 2027 scenario, widespread job loss doesn't occur until 2028–2029, after superintelligence has already been achieved — not as a precursor.
Where this was said
At 58:36 · chapter starts 54:25
This chapter addresses the question most directly relevant to the general listener: what's going to happen to jobs, and when? Kokotajlo's answer is counterintuitive. We have not seen mass unemployment yet — and that's exactly the problem. In science fiction and past technological waves, automation was gradual, industry by industry. But the real-world strategy of the AI companies is different: they are deliberately automating themselves first. The goal is to close the entire AI research loop — to have AIs doing all the research that produces better AIs, so that progress accelerates recursively. Only after they achieve that will they turn the technology outward into the broader economy. This means the familiar warning signs that might prompt public demand for regulation — widespread unemployment in visible industries — won't appear until it's already too late. The mass unemployment in AI 2027 doesn't occur until 2028–2029, after superintelligence has already been achieved. Kokotajlo is clear that technically all jobs could be replaced once true superintelligence exists — what jobs remain is then a political question, not a technical one.
If governments wait until mass unemployment sets in before regulating AI, it will already be too late — the companies' strategy is to achieve superintelligence first, then automate jobs.
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