In the AI 2040 Plan A scenario, one fifth of all cognitive labor is projected to be performed by AI by 2031.
Snapshot · The Diary Of A CEO with Steven Bartlett
In the AI 2040 Plan A scenario, one fifth of all cognitive labor is projected to be performed by AI by 2031.
Where this was said
At 1:22:56 · chapter starts 1:18:38
This is the most policy-dense section of the interview. Kokotajlo walks through the full AI 2040 Plan A scenario step by step. The premise: AI progress continues but just barely misses recursive self-improvement by 2030. In 2029, the US president negotiates an international agreement, sends inspectors to each country's data centres to verify they are running inference but not training new models, and temporarily halts development. New 'transparent data centres' are built, and when training resumes around 2030, it must be done with complete research transparency — architectures, training data, results — published openly. This 'open science' model is intended to solve both the alignment problem (more eyes on the problem) and the regulatory problem (governments can actually understand what companies are doing). The plan also requires active measures to prevent concentration of power — multiple companies across multiple countries, all at similar capability levels. Finally, new infrastructure must be designed to be reversible: if the agreement breaks down and racing restarts, newly-built data centres can be destroyed to prevent an even worse race. He acknowledges this kills competitive advantage for OpenAI and Anthropic but is good for humanity and for companies further behind the frontier.
In the AI 2040 Plan A scenario, a citizens' dividend starts at around $25,000 per person per year and grows to approximately $10 million per person per year as the AI-driven economy expands.
Sam's initial MVP was coded in approximately one week using ChatGPT voice mode and copy-pasting code, with no prior technical experience.
Sam argues Discord is 10x better than email for building relationships with younger users who rarely check their inbox.
Sam's monthly operating costs include Cursor ($200), AI image generation ($100), AI video generation ($200), hosting ($100), email marketing ($80), and AI compute ($300–$500).
Sam recommends copying days of Discord chat history into ChatGPT and prompting it to list recurring pain points as a fast, free market research technique.
Bhanu and his team built approximately 50 free tools to attract search traffic, each linked back to SiteGPT.
With AI coding tools like Cursor, Bhanu can now create a new free marketing tool in less than 5 minutes by referencing existing tools.
Bhanu filters Ahrefs keyword results to show only those with a keyword difficulty below 10, making them realistic ranking targets for any decent website.
Bhanu sets a minimum search volume of 1,000 monthly searches when selecting keywords to target with free tools.
PropGPT averaged 20 downloads per day right after launching on the App Store through influencer marketing.
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