Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI Grok Build & Claude cancel culture | GMP EP13

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI Grok Build & Claude cancel culture | GMP EP13

One AI coder burns up to 100x more tokens than a casual ChatGPT user — that single "red dot" on the adoption chart is causing the entire compute shortage.

May 16, 2026 1:37:48 Difficulty: Intermediate Played

TL;DR

Rik, Ben, and guest Matt break down the week's sharpest AI moves: Anthropic overtook OpenAI in business adoption (per Ramp data), OpenAI fired back with 30 days of free Codex for new businesses, and xAI launched Grok Build for developers. Rik cancelled his $100 Claude Max plan live on air, splitting the budget across Cursor, Codex, Claude, and xAI. The key takeaway: a single AI coder burns 60–100x more tokens than a casual ChatGPT user, making that "one red dot" on the AI adoption chart far more impactful than headcount suggests.

#Anthropic vs OpenAI #AI business adoption #token consumption #Cursor IDE #Claude Max plan #Grok Build #AI super cycle #HTML for AI agents #Notion agent SDK #voice cloning #Peter Levels stack #vibe coding #agentic goals #compute shortage #enterprise AI lock-in #Anthropic #OpenAI #Cursor #Claude #Codex #xAI #token economics #AI adoption #enterprise AI #HTML vs Markdown #Notion agents #Peter Levels #agentic AI

Rik, Ben, and guest Matt discuss the week's biggest AI news: Anthropic beating OpenAI in business adoption per Ramp data, OpenAI's free Codex response, xAI's Grok Build launch, the Claude Max plan cancellation controversy, token economics across AI tools, HTML vs Markdown for AI workflows, Notion's agent platform opening, and the Trump-Elon-Jensen China trip.

Chapter list
Vibe coding
A style of AI-assisted software development where builders describe what they want in natural language and let AI write the code, requiring little to no manual coding knowledge.
Tokens
The basic units of text that AI language models process and generate; pricing and usage limits for AI APIs are measured in tokens rather than words or characters.
Agentic AI
AI systems that can autonomously plan and execute multi-step tasks without requiring a human to approve each action, often running continuously in the background.
Ramp data
Usage and spend analytics from Ramp, a corporate card and spend management platform, which tracks which AI tools US businesses are paying for.
Claude Code
Anthropic's terminal-based AI coding agent that can autonomously read, write, and execute code within a developer's project environment.
Codex
OpenAI's cloud-based agentic coding tool that can run tasks in sandboxed environments, allowing developers to queue multiple coding jobs simultaneously.
PRD
Product Requirements Document — a specification that outlines what a product or feature should do, often used by AI agents as a planning artefact before writing code.
VPS
Virtual Private Server — a rented server hosted in the cloud that gives developers root access to a Linux environment for running applications and agents.
Remotion
An open-source framework for programmatically creating videos using React and JavaScript, allowing developers to render video content through code.
OpenRouter
A unified API platform that routes AI model requests to multiple providers (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, etc.), tracking aggregate token usage across the ecosystem.
Super Grok
xAI's premium subscription tier for Grok, gating access to advanced features like Grok Build early beta and higher usage limits.
Slash goals (/goals)
A Claude feature that lets users set an overarching objective for an AI agent session, instructing it to continue working autonomously until the goal is achieved.
Reinforcement learning
A machine learning technique where an AI model learns by receiving rewards for correct outputs and penalties for incorrect ones, used to improve model quality over time.
Colossus
xAI's large-scale GPU cluster used to train and run Grok models, reportedly sold off in part to Anthropic due to lower-than-expected Grok model utilisation.
Open source
Software whose source code is publicly available for anyone to read, modify, and redistribute, often used as a go-to-market strategy before monetising premium versions.
AGI (Artificial General Intelligence)
A hypothetical AI system capable of performing any intellectual task a human can; in this episode used loosely to mean a decisive capability lead over all competitors.
Subsidization
In AI business context, when a provider prices its API or subscriptions below cost to attract users and developers, effectively subsidising growth with investor capital.
Walled garden
A closed ecosystem where a platform controls access to services and restricts interoperability with outside tools, used here to describe Anthropic's and Notion's data lock-in strategies.
Supabase
An open-source Firebase alternative providing a managed PostgreSQL database, authentication, and storage — popular with indie hackers and vibe coders.
Hetzner
A German cloud and dedicated server provider popular with indie hackers for its low cost and bare-metal VPS offerings compared to AWS or Google Cloud.

Chapter 4 · 04:08

The AI Super Cycle: Four Phases and Elon's Everywhere

The AI super cycle has four phases — Elon Musk is the only player in all of them.

Technology
The AI Super Cycle: Elon Has a Hand in Every Phase

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

A viral chart mapped the AI super cycle across four phases: semiconductors, data centre infrastructure, rare earths and robotics, and finally AGI software dominance. Elon Musk is the only player with meaningful positions in all four: silicon (Tesla DOJO), energy (solar/batteries), space (SpaceX), and physical AI (Optimus robot). That's not a coincidence.

Chapter 6 · 09:57

NVIDIA Hits $5.5T and the AI Echo Chamber Chart

The AI adoption chart is lying to you — one coder burns 100x more compute than a casual user.

Technology
One Red Dot is Melting the Internet

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

The viral 'AI adoption' chart misses the most important variable: token consumption. A single AI coder burns 60–100x more tokens than a casual ChatGPT user, meaning the one red dot representing 3.2 million people is actually equivalent to 50–100 dots in compute terms. That tiny slice of developers is the reason compute is scarce.

Chapter 8 · 18:54

Anthropic Beats OpenAI in Business Adoption (Ramp Data)

Anthropic just beat OpenAI in business adoption — and the counterpunches are flying.

Business
Anthropic vs OpenAI: The Enterprise War Heats Up

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Business

Anthropic beat OpenAI in business adoption for the first time per Ramp data, despite OpenAI owning ~85% of consumer mindshare. OpenAI responded immediately by offering Codex free for 30 days to new business sign-ups, then Anthropic raised Claude Code limits 50%. This push-pull battle to lock in enterprise customers is accelerating fast.

Chapter 9 · 23:44

Cursor vs Claude Code vs Codex: The Great Tool Debate

If all AI models are equal, the platform that switches between them wins.

Chapter 10 · 29:55

Rik Cancels His $100 Claude Max Plan Live on Air

Cancelled my $100 Claude plan live on air — here's where the money goes instead.

Chapter 11 · 33:50

HTML vs Markdown for AI Agent Workflows

HTML beats Markdown for AI agents — but it'll cost you 5x the tokens.

Technology
HTML is the New Markdown — But at What Cost?

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

An Anthropic researcher argued HTML is superior to Markdown for AI agent workflows — more visual, interactive, and human-readable. But Matt tested it and found HTML uses 5x more tokens per file. The tradeoff is real: visual clarity catches errors earlier and leads to better outputs, but the cost premium is significant for anyone already hitting their Claude limits.

Chapter 12 · 41:05

Slash Goals: Agentic Breakthrough or Rebranded Hype?

AI's viral new /goals feature is either a breakthrough or just rebranded hype.

Technology
Slash Goals: Genuine Feature or Marketing Gimmick?

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

Claude's new /goals feature went viral with stories of agents autonomously selling inventory over four days. Ben sees it as a critical North Star metric for agentic AI. Matt's counter: isn't this basically the same as the Wiggum loop from six months ago? And if you tell an AI to 'increase revenue per user,' it might just cancel your lowest-paying subscribers.

Chapter 13 · 49:45

Anthropic's API Crackdown: The 40x Rate Limit Cut

Anthropic cut API limits by 40x — and businesses that built on their subsidy are scrambling.

Business
Anthropic's API Crackdown: Building on Someone Else's Subsidy

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Business

Anthropic's new programmatic usage policy slashed third-party API rate limits by up to 40x for some businesses — even those paying $40k/month. Businesses that built products on Claude's subsidised pricing are now forced to rethink their architecture. Rik's blunt verdict: you built a business on their generosity; don't be surprised the generosity has limits.

Chapter 14 · 55:20

xAI Launches Grok Build and the Data Quality Problem

Twitter gave xAI data volume, not quality — and that's why Grok fell behind.

Technology
xAI's Missing Piece: Quality Data, Not Quantity

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

xAI had compute and Twitter's massive dataset, but Twitter content is not quality training data. That data quality gap is why Grok models lagged, and it's why xAI partnered with Cursor — whose codebase of production-validated pull requests is worth more than raw social media noise. Cursor's dataset could be worth $10 billion.

Chapter 15 · 1:00:25

Voice Cloning, Grok Skills, and the Ethical Grey Zone

Notion just opened up for AI agents — and it might be the stickiest moat in enterprise AI.

Business
Notion Opens Its Walled Garden to AI Agents

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Business

Notion launched a full agent SDK, CLI, webhooks, and database sync — positioning itself as the enterprise knowledge layer for AI agents. With 50% YoY revenue growth already, Notion is moving from business tool to AI agent platform. The risk: if businesses already have all their context in Notion, they won't migrate to native AI tools even if they're better.

Technology
Voice Cloning is Solved — and That's Terrifying

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

Voice cloning is now good enough that people are using it to keep talking to ex-partners, and Matt noted he's surprised there aren't more scam cases impersonating loved ones. The tech is indistinguishable from real voices. xAI launching its own voice cloning just brought this capability further into the mainstream at lower cost.

Chapter 16 · 1:04:15

Notion Opens for AI Agents: Platform or Walled Garden?

Peter Levels runs startups making $1M/month for less than the cost of a Notion subscription.

Technology
Peter Levels Runs Startups Cheaper Than a Notion Subscription

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

Peter Levels' infrastructure stack for his portfolio of startups costs less than a single Notion subscription per month, despite generating roughly $1 million in monthly revenue. The key: bare-metal VPS with Hetzner, Cloudflare for heavy tasks, and switching email from Resend to a native Cloudflare worker. AI now makes this level of lean infrastructure accessible to non-experts.

Chapter 18 · 1:12:20

AI Video Editing Deep Dive: HeyGen, Remotion, and the Missing Workflow

A chatbot today doesn't even let you be able to see the video and play it in the chat. So I don't see how that would be possible.

Chapter 19 · 1:16:38

Clicky, Google AI Book, and the Future of Computer UI

Clicky is the Clippy that actually works — and it's open source.

Technology
Clicky: The Clippy That Actually Works

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

Clicky is a floating desktop agent that lets you spawn tasks with your voice while hovering over any app. You can ask it to find Instagram influencers, clean your desktop, or set a reminder — all running in the background. Ben compared it to a Clippy that actually works. The first version is open source, following the classic hook-then-monetise playbook.

No indexed bits in this chapter.

Show stoppers

Technology
One Red Dot is Melting the Internet

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Technology

The viral 'AI adoption' chart misses the most important variable: token consumption. A single AI coder burns 60–100x more tokens than a casual ChatGPT user, meaning the one red dot representing 3.2 million people is actually equivalent to 50–100 dots in compute terms. That tiny slice of developers is the reason compute is scarce.

Business
Anthropic's API Crackdown: Building on Someone Else's Subsidy

Anthropic won the AI race, OpenAI gives Codex for free, xAI… · May 16, 2026 Business

Anthropic's new programmatic usage policy slashed third-party API rate limits by up to 40x for some businesses — even those paying $40k/month. Businesses that built products on Claude's subsidised pricing are now forced to rethink their architecture. Rik's blunt verdict: you built a business on their generosity; don't be surprised the generosity has limits.

Snapshots ()

Key Quotes ()

This episode

Claims & Sources

2 / 15 cited (13%)

Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.

A single AI coder burns 60 to 100 times more tokens than a casual ChatGPT user.

Ben no source cited

One user logged 865 million tokens in a single month, costing approximately $2,500 in API costs.

Ben no source cited

Anthropic overtook OpenAI in US business AI adoption for the first time, per Ramp data.

Rik Ramp data

OpenAI offered Codex free for 30 days to new businesses in response to Anthropic's business adoption milestone.

Rik no source cited

Global token usage on OpenRouter grew from 7 trillion in January 2026 to 28 trillion tokens by May 2026.

Ben OpenRouter

Cursor's $18/month plan includes $180 worth of tokens, plus unlimited but slower Composer usage after the token allowance is exhausted.

Matt no source cited

Anthropic's new programmatic usage policy cut third-party API rate limits by approximately 40x for some businesses.

Rik no source cited

Converting a Markdown file to HTML for AI agent use consumed five times as many tokens.

Matt no source cited

Notion grew its revenue by approximately 50% year over year.

Ben no source cited

Peter Levels operates AI coding agents that consume approximately 50 million tokens per minute.

Ben no source cited

NVIDIA became the first company to reach a $5.5 trillion market capitalisation.

Rik no source cited

xAI's Grok 4.1 Fast was priced at less than one-tenth the cost of Grok 4.7.

Matt no source cited

xAI sold off part of its Colossus compute cluster to Anthropic because Grok models were not being used as much as expected.

Ben no source cited

Using Cloudflare as a caching and rendering layer between Vercel and end users cut Rik's Vercel CPU usage by 70%.

Rik no source cited

The Internet effectively closed down to AI scraping in the last two years, making it harder for new AI companies to access the quality training data that helped OpenAI and Anthropic reach GPT-4 level capability.

Ben no source cited

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