The 60-day Iranian oil sanctions waiver could bring Iran up to $10 billion in sanctions relief, according to economist Steve Rattner.
Pool Me Twice, Shame On You
Trump showed an Oval Office document comparing himself to Genghis Khan, Hitler, and Stalin — and it was written by Gary Player's former caddy, not a historian.
Pod Save America
Pool Me Twice, Shame On You
Trump showed an Oval Office document comparing himself to Genghis Khan, Hitler, and Stalin — and it was written by Gary Player's former caddy, not a historian.
TL;DR
Pod Save America breaks down a chaotic week in Trump's second term: faltering Iran peace talks where the US waived sanctions before getting any verified concessions [1] — Jon Favreau "The US agreed to a 60-day oil sanctions waiver — the first in 40 years — potentially worth $10 billion to Iran, before Iran confirmed a sin…" 08:14 , the reflecting pool debacle that devolved from contractor cronyism into federal arrests of alleged phantom vandals [2] — Jon Lovett "Trump's $16.5 million no-bid pool renovation — awarded to a convicted crony — failed spectacularly, with algae blooms and peeling liner. Ra…" 22:30 , the Qatari jet gift generated at Trump's own direction [3] — Maggie Haberman "Qatar initially sought $150–$200 million for the jet now serving as Air Force One. It suddenly became a free gift, with the idea reportedly…" 35:10 , and Bill Pulte's alarming takeover as acting DNI. The episode closes with a must-listen interview: NYT reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan reveal Trump sees himself as a Napoleonic figure, handed them a document comparing him to Genghis Khan and Hitler — written by Gary Player's former caddy [4] — Maggie Haberman "There are no structured meetings in Trump's Oval Office — just a rolling bull session. Maggie Haberman describes NSC officials waiting in a…" 1:16:00 .
Jon Favreau, Tommy Vietor, and Jon Lovett cover the Iran peace talks, the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool fiasco, the Qatari Air Force One jet, Bill Pulte's takeover as acting DNI, and Trump's corrupt pardon of David Gentile — then NYT reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan discuss their book Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.
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Pod Save America opens with its customary sponsor segment, featuring Tommy Vietor reading for SimpliSafe — a home security system he personally uses and recommends — with Jon Lovett chiming in on keeping packages safe. The SimpliSafe pitch emphasizes the 50% off deal for new subscribers who sign up for professional monitoring. The segment closes with a quick promo for NPR's Up First daily news podcast, positioned as a short, fact-based morning briefing.
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With the ads behind them, the three hosts introduce themselves and map out the episode: Iran peace talks, the reflecting pool fiasco, the Qatari Air Force One, Bill Pulte's acting DNI takeover, Tulsi Gabbard's cult connections, and the corrupt pardon of David Gentile. Tommy gives a genuine, enthusiastic endorsement of the Haberman-Swan book, saying even political sickos who follow the Trump beat closely will learn a lot from it. Jon Favreau, who confesses he doesn't usually read books, says this one has pulled him in.
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Jon Favreau opens with a recap of a chaotic week in the Iran negotiations: the ceasefire briefly collapsed, Iran announced it closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump threatened to take over the strait entirely. JD Vance cited three points of progress — keeping the strait open, a Hezbollah deconfliction mechanism, and Iran agreeing to nuclear inspectors — but the Iranians haven't confirmed any of it. Meanwhile, the US handed over a 60-day oil sanctions waiver potentially worth $10 billion, the first such waiver in roughly four decades [1] — Jon Favreau "60-day Iran sanctions waiver: The US agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days — the first time in roughly 4 decades — before Ir…" 08:26 . Tommy Vietor is particularly skeptical: Iran has more time and expertise in negotiations, Trump has given up his leverage, and the threat of military action is gone. Jon Lovett puts the situation bluntly — Iran looks like it forced concessions without firing a shot. The segment ends with a sharp fact-check of JD Vance's Ross Douthat interview, where Vance falsely claimed the current deal is better than the JCPOA on uranium. Tommy corrects the record: under the JCPOA, Iran shipped 97% of its uranium to Russia; the current deal would merely down-blend it and keep it inside Iran [2] — Tommy Vietor "97% uranium shipped out under JCPOA: Under the Obama-era JCPOA, Iran shipped out 97% of its uranium stockpile to Russia for disposal — the …" 10:25 .
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The hosts play a series of clips that capture the full disarray of Republican reactions to the Iran situation. Lindsey Graham threatens that if the deal fails, Trump will take over the Strait of Hormuz by force and obliterate Iran — a proposition Tommy Vietor dismisses as absurd given Trump just tried and failed to do exactly that. Tucker Carlson goes the opposite direction, declaring he's out of the Republican Party entirely if it continues to put foreign interests above American ones. Jim Comer, meanwhile, celebrates the open strait and inspector access as victory. Jon Lovett identifies the emerging cope narrative from Iran hawks like Hugh Hewitt and Mark Levin: declare a tactical pause, survive the midterms, then return to a bellicose regime-change posture. Tommy raises a pointed structural critique: why does Face the Nation keep booking Lindsey Graham as the 'serious' hawkish voice when his entire track record on Iraq and Iran has been catastrophically wrong? The anti-war perspective, he notes, is rarely treated as serious by Washington booking culture.
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Jon Favreau highlights a CBS News poll with striking data: 80/20 support for ending the war, 70% saying it was not worth the cost, and broad majorities believing neither Iran's nuclear program was stopped, nor its people benefited, nor a friendlier regime installed [1] — Jon Favreau "70% say Iran war not worth cost: A CBS News poll found 70% of Americans said the Iran war was not worth the cost, with only 30% saying it w…" 16:25 . The hosts dig into the intra-MAGA split — 56% of MAGA Republicans want the conflict ended now, and 90% of self-identified MAGA respondents said the deal was better for Iran, compared to only 19% of all Republicans. Tommy observes this resembles how wars historically damage presidents: getting out and being perceived as losing is more politically damaging than bumping along. Jon Favreau flags a coming political trap: 42% of respondents expect gas prices to fall in the coming weeks, building expectations Trump may not be able to meet, since falling oil prices don't automatically translate to falling pump prices.
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Tommy reads a ZipRecruiter ad touting its smart-matching technology and notes that Crooked Media uses the platform internally. Jon Lovett then reads a Hims ad for ED treatment, offering up to 95% savings on generic Viagra (sildenafil) through the platform, with no awkward appointments required. Standard mid-episode ad break.
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Jon Favreau recaps the reflecting pool saga with appropriate incredulity. The renovation was given as a no-bid contract to John Caffaro, a convicted criminal who bribed Congressman James Traficant and is also a Mar-a-Lago associate of Trump. Caffaro's company is called Greenwater Services. The renovation failed almost immediately, producing algae blooms and a peeling liner [1] — Jon Favreau "Reflecting pool: $16.5M, 2 months: Trump's no-bid reflecting pool renovation cost $16.5 million and took 2 months — compared to Obama's ren…" 25:12 . Rather than admit error, the administration posted what appear to be AI-altered images of a pristine pool, invented a narrative of sabotage by vandals wielding box cutters, and arrested at least five people including a former Olympic canoeist who says he was just reaching into the water. Trump in the Oval Office claimed a 350-foot slit was cut through the liner and said proof would come 'in court' while referencing 'dirty cop Comey' as an instigator [2] — Jon Lovett "Trump's $16.5 million no-bid pool renovation — awarded to a convicted crony — failed spectacularly, with algae blooms and peeling liner. Ra…" 22:30 . Jon Lovett traces the self-reinforcing spiral: each lie drew more media attention, leading to more arrests, leading to more coverage, converting a trivial story about a pool renovation into a perfect metaphor for the administration's lying, lawlessness, and incompetence. Jon Favreau notes the exquisite irony that in April, Trump himself boasted that a knife couldn't even cut the liner, while now blaming vandals with knives.
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Tommy reads a Helix mattress ad, sharing that his household actually owns one in their guest room and that visitors always compliment it. He makes the philosophical point that a good mattress makes you more ready to be alive. Jon Lovett then reads the Smalls cat food ad, which launches into a brief digression about what 'obligate carnivore' means versus 'omnivore' versus the inexplicably wrong guess of 'multiverse.' The hosts riff on meat-eating YouTube personalities with bright red faces before returning to the cat food pitch. Light comedic relief between heavy news segments.
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Jon Favreau walks through the Qatari jet story with mounting outrage. The Air Force privately said it would use nuclear modernization funds for the upgrades, and one month later a $900 million transfer from a nuclear account to an unnamed classified project appeared. Despite Trump calling it a free jet, the upgrades have already cost several hundred million in taxpayer money [1] — Jon Favreau "Nuclear funds diverted for jet: An unexplained $900 million transfer from a nuclear modernization account to an unnamed classified project …" 34:20 . The hosts discuss the aesthetics — the red, white, and blue livery is broadly liked, but Jon Lovett can't stand the waving flag painted on the tail, calling it cheap and tacky. Jon Favreau notes the deeper symbolism: the plane that used to represent presidential prestige (including the iconic JFK-era design by Raymond Loewy) now represents corruption, and it will follow Trump into every press photo as long as he uses it. Tommy previews what the Regime Change book reveals — that Qatar initially wanted payment, the gift idea was generated at the POTUS level, and Trump personally super-glued gold decorations onto Oval Office mantelpieces [2] — Tommy Vietor "Qatar jet: $150-200M initially sought: Qatar initially sought $150–$200 million for the jet that became Air Force One, but then suddenly gi…" 35:54 .
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Jon Favreau explains the mechanics of Trump's DNI gambit: rather than quickly confirming his own nominee Jay Clayton, Trump created a standoff to keep political operative Bill Pulte — who has no intelligence experience — in the acting role long enough to fire career officials and access intelligence files. A CNN source confirmed Pulte began deep-state firings almost immediately. Then the hosts dig into the bombshell Washington Post story about Tulsi Gabbard's alleged manipulation by a cult leader throughout her congressional career: in 24 of 32 TV appearances between 2014 and 2016, she used language from the cult's memos almost verbatim, and also introduced legislation the memos directed her to pursue. Jon Favreau marvels that this woman was directing national intelligence. Jon Lovett notes the operation was simultaneously grandiose and embarrassingly amateurish — running dummy Twitter accounts to comment on Hawaii newspaper articles about Gabbard. The hosts hope this permanently disqualifies her from any future presidential run.
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Jon Favreau walks through the New York Times story by Ken Vogel: David Gentile, who stole more than $1 billion from mostly mom-and-pop investors, had his sentence commuted by Trump less than 2 weeks in. Jailhouse communications reportedly showed Gentile discussing $2 million in payments to secure his freedom, with a retired Catholic priest and Trump inauguration speaker — who had cleaned and photographed Trump's parents' graves as a gift — being the conduit. Trump's own political appointees then killed the early-stage DOJ investigation into how the clemency happened. Jon Lovett argues this is some of the most brazen corruption of the administration, and notes there appears to be daylight between Trump (who may not have known money was changing hands) and the operatives around him who may have been pocketing fees. Tommy says this story directly connects corruption to voter harm and is exactly the kind of message Democrats should be running on. Jon Favreau contemplates whether the next Democratic Congress should pursue impeachment purely as an educational exercise.
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Jon Favreau reads the CookUnity ad with an off-the-cuff personal anecdote about having Thai beef curry the previous night, noting he's been a customer long before they became a sponsor. The pitch emphasizes fresh, small-batch meals from Michelin-starred chefs cooked in local micro-kitchens rather than factories. ThirdLove's ad, read by Tommy, focuses on the brand's half-cup sizing and broad range (AA through H), and offers $15 off with code PODCAST15. Functional ad break leading into the Regime Change interview.
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Tommy Vietor kicks off the Regime Change interview by noting the book involved over 1,000 interviews and is a genuine page-turner even for people who follow Trump obsessively. Maggie Haberman opens by stressing that this presidency is fundamentally different from term one: Trump is surrounded by people who have spent years thinking about how to use the levers of power, the Republican Congress is completely cowed, tech leaders and law firms have capitulated, and Trump is wielding power in ways not seen in American political history [1] — Jonathan Swan "He views himself and is trying to create this for himself as a capital G great man of history, as a sort of Napoleonic figure." 1:04:55 . Jonathan Swan takes the Napoleonic angle further, describing how Trump views himself as a capital G great man of history who wants to put his imprint on the world regardless of midterm polling. He then drops the most extraordinary anecdote in the book: Trump handed them a 2-page document in the Oval Office comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, and Genghis Khan on the basis of power. Trump relished the comparison and insisted a historian wrote it. The historian turned out to be Gary Player's former caddy [2] — Jonathan Swan "In the Oval Office, Trump handed Haberman and Swan a 2-page document comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, and Genghis…" 1:04:55 .
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Tommy focuses the interview on corruption, which he describes as the most shocking aspect of Trump's second term. Maggie Haberman explains that the jet story was the first neon-sign moment: Qatar initially wanted $150–$200 million for the plane, and then suddenly it was a gift, with the idea reportedly generated at the POTUS level [1] — Tommy Vietor "Qatar jet: $150-200M initially sought: Qatar initially sought $150–$200 million for the jet that became Air Force One, but then suddenly gi…" 35:54 . She frames the broader mindset: Trump's family openly says they gave up a lot, there are no laws prohibiting what they're doing, and the scale is unlike anything in modern American presidential history. Jonathan Swan then drops the Howard Lutnick anecdote: Trump told people in the Oval Office that the only reason he put up with Lutnick's bullshit was the $25 million Lutnick donated to the Trump Presidential Library Fund [2] — Jonathan Swan "Trump library fundraising target: $2B: People around Trump have described a goal of raising $2 billion for his presidential library — doubl…" 1:13:18 . Swan describes a library conceived as a 100-story tower over Miami with a gold Trump statue, restaurants, and a hotel, with a fundraising target of $2 billion — double Obama's — and with Eric Trump and others approaching Gulf sovereign wealth funds and monarchies for donations, all while the administration is simultaneously selling advanced chips to the Emirates [3] — Jonathan Swan "38,000+ Trump references in Epstein files: The New York Times found more than 38,000 references to Trump, his family, and Mar-a-Lago in the…" 1:21:17 . Swan concludes that he thinks they know only 1–5% of the corruption that's actually taking place.
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Tommy asks Haberman to paint a picture of how Trump actually runs the government day-to-day. She describes an Oval Office where one meeting collides into the next, Laura Loomer lists NSC enemies while a congressman arrives for a separate appointment and joins in, and NSC aides wait in corners for classified sign-offs while a decorator walks in with Rose Garden paver samples. Government is being run by a remarkably small circle, and cabinet secretaries often don't know what's happening if they're not physically in the room. Swan then describes Natalie Harp, the former OAN anchor Trump calls his 'human printer,' who Googles positive news on demand and has written devotional letters to Trump including one saying 'you are all that matters to me.' Trump's information diet is overwhelmingly Fox News, with virtually no exposure to critical coverage — the manosphere podcast world he exploited during the 2024 campaign barely registers to him personally [1] — Jonathan Swan "She's just totally devoted to him. In Oval Office meetings, she sits on the chair the side of the room with her laptop open. And Trump, the…" 1:17:45 . Swan concludes it's an almost impenetrable bubble of flatterers, filtered news, and loyalists.
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Tommy asks about the Epstein file crisis, and Swan unpacks it methodically: the files contained over 38,000 references to Trump and his family, Trump himself didn't want any transparency, and his top aides held crisis management sessions in the Situation Room — a national security command center repurposed as an Epstein PR strategy room. Private focus groups conducted almost a full year later still showed Epstein cutting through to Trump's base at an alarming level. Swan compares the political damage to Biden's Afghanistan withdrawal as a turning point [1] — Jonathan Swan "Trump document compared him to top 10 historical rulers: Trump handed Haberman and Swan a 2-page document in the Oval Office, reportedly wr…" 1:04:55 . The hosts then get the extraordinary Witkoff scene: he asked Putin to sign a '3+2' territorial framework drawing, had it framed at home in black with taupe mats, and told Putin that Russia's main problem is bad PR. Trump himself, in an Oval Office Russia-Ukraine session, interrupted a Keith Kellogg presentation to say the only good thing about Ukraine is the women winning Miss Universe and that Zelensky has destroyed his country. The conversation closes with the Rupert Murdoch dinner anecdote — Trump asked Murdoch to grade Vance and Rubio at the same table, with Murdoch rating Rubio 'brilliant' and Vance merely having 'potential' [2] — Jonathan Swan "Witkoff, Trump's real-estate-buddy-turned-diplomat, asked Putin to sign a piece of paper reading '3+2' — the territorial framework ceding t…" 1:23:40 .
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Jon Favreau closes out with genuine enthusiasm for the Regime Change book, encouraging listeners to pick it up for unparalleled insight into Trump's decision-making. He notes that Dan Pfeiffer will return for the Friday episode. The full production and editorial team credits roll — Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, Faris Safary, and others — with a note that Pod Save America's staff is unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.
- JCPOA
- Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action — the 2015 Obama-era Iran nuclear deal under which Iran shipped out 97% of its enriched uranium in exchange for sanctions relief; Trump withdrew from it in 2018.
- IAEA
- International Atomic Energy Agency — the UN body responsible for nuclear weapons inspections; discussed in the context of whether Iran will allow inspectors under the new deal.
- IRGC
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — Iran's powerful military-ideological force, which the hosts note as a domestic Iranian faction likely to oppose any nuclear deal with the US.
- DNI
- Director of National Intelligence — the head of the US intelligence community, a role discussed in the context of Bill Pulte's controversial appointment as acting director.
- FISA
- Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — the legal framework governing US intelligence collection, mentioned in the context of Republican maneuvering around the DNI confirmation.
- SAVE Act
- A Republican-backed bill aimed at requiring proof of citizenship for voter registration, framed by critics as addressing a nonexistent problem of noncitizen voting.
- down-blending
- The process of diluting highly enriched uranium to a lower, less weapons-usable concentration; discussed as an inferior alternative to shipping uranium out of Iran entirely.
- UC (Unanimous Consent)
- A Senate procedure allowing legislation or nominations to pass without a formal vote if no senator objects; discussed as a mechanism senators considered using to quickly confirm Jay Clayton as DNI.
- Oblasts
- Administrative regions in Ukraine; used in the context of the 3+2 territorial framework where Russia would keep 3 oblasts outright and 2 would have a frozen conflict.
- no-bid contract
- A government contract awarded without a competitive bidding process; used to describe the reflecting pool renovation deal given to Trump's Mar-a-Lago associate John Caffaro.
- cowed
- Intimidated into submission; Maggie Haberman used it to describe the state of Republican Congress, tech leaders, donors, and law firms at the start of Trump's second term.
- apparatchik
- An unquestioningly loyal member of a political machine or party apparatus; used to describe Trump-aligned commentators defending the Iran deal outcome despite their prior hawkish positions.
- manosphere
- A loose online ecosystem of male-oriented podcasts, influencers, and content creators; mentioned in the context of Trump's exploitation of these platforms during the 2024 campaign.
- deconflicting cell
- A military/diplomatic coordination mechanism designed to prevent accidental armed clashes between parties; discussed as what the vague 'mechanism to defuse flare-ups' between Hezbollah and Israel likely amounts to.
- lame duck
- A political leader whose successor has been chosen or whose term is ending, reducing their political influence; discussed in the context of when Trump's successor endorsement will diminish his relevance.
- bellicose
- Aggressively warlike or hostile in manner; used to describe the stance Iran hawks plan to return to after the midterm elections.
- scapegoat
- A person blamed for wrongdoings or failures of others; used to describe Trump's strategy of blaming phantom vandals for the reflecting pool's structural failures.
Chapter 3 · 03:05
Iran Peace Talks: Progress, Skepticism, and JD Vance's Errors
Jon Favreau opens with a recap of a chaotic week in the Iran negotiations: the ceasefire briefly collapsed, Iran announced it closed the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump threatened to take over the strait entirely. JD Vance cited three points of progress — keeping the strait open, a Hezbollah deconfliction mechanism, and Iran agreeing to nuclear inspectors — but the Iranians haven't confirmed any of it. Meanwhile, the US handed over a 60-day oil sanctions waiver potentially worth $10 billion, the first such waiver in roughly four decades [1] — Jon Favreau "60-day Iran sanctions waiver: The US agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days — the first time in roughly 4 decades — before Ir…" 08:26 . Tommy Vietor is particularly skeptical: Iran has more time and expertise in negotiations, Trump has given up his leverage, and the threat of military action is gone. Jon Lovett puts the situation bluntly — Iran looks like it forced concessions without firing a shot. The segment ends with a sharp fact-check of JD Vance's Ross Douthat interview, where Vance falsely claimed the current deal is better than the JCPOA on uranium. Tommy corrects the record: under the JCPOA, Iran shipped 97% of its uranium to Russia; the current deal would merely down-blend it and keep it inside Iran [2] — Tommy Vietor "97% uranium shipped out under JCPOA: Under the Obama-era JCPOA, Iran shipped out 97% of its uranium stockpile to Russia for disposal — the …" 10:25 .
Claims made here
The US agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales for 60 days, the first time in approximately 40 years.
Under the JCPOA, Iran shipped out 97% of its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia for disposal. The current deal, by contrast, would down-blend it and keep it inside Iran.
The US agreed to a 60-day oil sanctions waiver — the first in 40 years — potentially worth $10 billion to Iran, before Iran confirmed a single nuclear weapons inspector entry. Jon Favreau and Tommy Vietor note that under the JCPOA, no sanctions relief came until Iran acted first.
Economist Steve Rattner estimated the 60-day oil sanctions waiver could bring Iran up to $10 billion in relief.
The US agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian oil for 60 days — the first time in roughly 4 decades — before Iran confirmed any nuclear inspections.
JD Vance told Ross Douthat that unlike Obama's deal, the new arrangement removes Iran's enriched uranium. That's flatly false. Under the JCPOA, Iran shipped 97% of its stockpile to Russia. The current deal would merely down-blend it and keep it inside Iran.
Under the Obama-era JCPOA, Iran shipped out 97% of its uranium stockpile to Russia for disposal — the opposite of what JD Vance claimed.
Chapter 4 · 11:20
Republican Fractures on Iran: Hawks, Copers, and Tucker Carlson Quits
The hosts play a series of clips that capture the full disarray of Republican reactions to the Iran situation. Lindsey Graham threatens that if the deal fails, Trump will take over the Strait of Hormuz by force and obliterate Iran — a proposition Tommy Vietor dismisses as absurd given Trump just tried and failed to do exactly that. Tucker Carlson goes the opposite direction, declaring he's out of the Republican Party entirely if it continues to put foreign interests above American ones. Jim Comer, meanwhile, celebrates the open strait and inspector access as victory. Jon Lovett identifies the emerging cope narrative from Iran hawks like Hugh Hewitt and Mark Levin: declare a tactical pause, survive the midterms, then return to a bellicose regime-change posture. Tommy raises a pointed structural critique: why does Face the Nation keep booking Lindsey Graham as the 'serious' hawkish voice when his entire track record on Iraq and Iran has been catastrophically wrong? The anti-war perspective, he notes, is rarely treated as serious by Washington booking culture.
Claims made here
A CBS News poll found 70% of Americans said the Iran war was not worth the cost.
A CBS News poll found 70% of Americans believe the Iran war was not worth the cost. Even 56% of self-identified MAGA Republicans want the conflict ended now. When you can't hold your own base, the political damage is real.
A CBS News poll found 70% of Americans said the Iran war was not worth the cost, with only 30% saying it was.
Chapter 5 · 16:40
Iran War Polling: 70% Say Not Worth It, Even MAGA Breaks
Jon Favreau highlights a CBS News poll with striking data: 80/20 support for ending the war, 70% saying it was not worth the cost, and broad majorities believing neither Iran's nuclear program was stopped, nor its people benefited, nor a friendlier regime installed [1] — Jon Favreau "70% say Iran war not worth cost: A CBS News poll found 70% of Americans said the Iran war was not worth the cost, with only 30% saying it w…" 16:25 . The hosts dig into the intra-MAGA split — 56% of MAGA Republicans want the conflict ended now, and 90% of self-identified MAGA respondents said the deal was better for Iran, compared to only 19% of all Republicans. Tommy observes this resembles how wars historically damage presidents: getting out and being perceived as losing is more politically damaging than bumping along. Jon Favreau flags a coming political trap: 42% of respondents expect gas prices to fall in the coming weeks, building expectations Trump may not be able to meet, since falling oil prices don't automatically translate to falling pump prices.
Claims made here
56% of self-identified MAGA Republicans wanted the Iran conflict ended immediately, while 44% wanted to continue fighting to get more concessions from Iran.
Even among self-identified MAGA Republicans, 56% said they wanted the conflict with Iran ended now rather than continuing to extract more concessions.
Chapter 7 · 22:25
The Reflecting Pool Debacle: Cronyism, Algae, and Phantom Vandals
Jon Favreau recaps the reflecting pool saga with appropriate incredulity. The renovation was given as a no-bid contract to John Caffaro, a convicted criminal who bribed Congressman James Traficant and is also a Mar-a-Lago associate of Trump. Caffaro's company is called Greenwater Services. The renovation failed almost immediately, producing algae blooms and a peeling liner [1] — Jon Favreau "Reflecting pool: $16.5M, 2 months: Trump's no-bid reflecting pool renovation cost $16.5 million and took 2 months — compared to Obama's ren…" 25:12 . Rather than admit error, the administration posted what appear to be AI-altered images of a pristine pool, invented a narrative of sabotage by vandals wielding box cutters, and arrested at least five people including a former Olympic canoeist who says he was just reaching into the water. Trump in the Oval Office claimed a 350-foot slit was cut through the liner and said proof would come 'in court' while referencing 'dirty cop Comey' as an instigator [2] — Jon Lovett "Trump's $16.5 million no-bid pool renovation — awarded to a convicted crony — failed spectacularly, with algae blooms and peeling liner. Ra…" 22:30 . Jon Lovett traces the self-reinforcing spiral: each lie drew more media attention, leading to more arrests, leading to more coverage, converting a trivial story about a pool renovation into a perfect metaphor for the administration's lying, lawlessness, and incompetence. Jon Favreau notes the exquisite irony that in April, Trump himself boasted that a knife couldn't even cut the liner, while now blaming vandals with knives.
Claims made here
Trump's reflecting pool renovation cost $16.5 million and took 2 months, despite originally being described as a $1 million, one-week project.
Trump's $16.5 million no-bid pool renovation — awarded to a convicted crony — failed spectacularly, with algae blooms and peeling liner. Rather than admit failure, the administration invented phantom vandals, posted AI-altered images of a clean pool, and then arrested people just for looking at the mess.
Trump's no-bid reflecting pool renovation cost $16.5 million and took 2 months — compared to Obama's renovation which cost over $100 million and took 2 years, according to Trump's own claims.
In April, Trump boasted the reflecting pool's new lining was so strong that even a knife couldn't cut it, and would last 50 years. When it failed, he claimed a 350-foot slit was cut by a box cutter. The irony is complete: he gave the vandals their script.
Chapter 9 · 34:20
The Qatari Jet: Air Force Bribe One
Jon Favreau walks through the Qatari jet story with mounting outrage. The Air Force privately said it would use nuclear modernization funds for the upgrades, and one month later a $900 million transfer from a nuclear account to an unnamed classified project appeared. Despite Trump calling it a free jet, the upgrades have already cost several hundred million in taxpayer money [1] — Jon Favreau "Nuclear funds diverted for jet: An unexplained $900 million transfer from a nuclear modernization account to an unnamed classified project …" 34:20 . The hosts discuss the aesthetics — the red, white, and blue livery is broadly liked, but Jon Lovett can't stand the waving flag painted on the tail, calling it cheap and tacky. Jon Favreau notes the deeper symbolism: the plane that used to represent presidential prestige (including the iconic JFK-era design by Raymond Loewy) now represents corruption, and it will follow Trump into every press photo as long as he uses it. Tommy previews what the Regime Change book reveals — that Qatar initially wanted payment, the gift idea was generated at the POTUS level, and Trump personally super-glued gold decorations onto Oval Office mantelpieces [2] — Tommy Vietor "Qatar jet: $150-200M initially sought: Qatar initially sought $150–$200 million for the jet that became Air Force One, but then suddenly gi…" 35:54 .
Claims made here
An unexplained $900 million transfer from a nuclear modernization account to an unnamed classified project appeared one month after the Air Force said it would use nuclear funds to pay for the Qatari jet upgrade.
Qatar initially sought $150 to $200 million for the plane now serving as the new Air Force One, but then suddenly gifted it, with the idea for the gift reportedly generated at the POTUS level.
An unexplained $900 million transfer from a nuclear modernization account to an unnamed classified project appeared one month after the Air Force said it would use nuclear funds to pay for the Qatari jet upgrade.
Qatar initially sought $150–$200 million for the jet now serving as Air Force One. It suddenly became a free gift, with the idea reportedly generated at the POTUS level. Taxpayers then paid hundreds of millions more to make it safe for presidential travel — money pulled from nuclear modernization funds.
Qatar initially sought $150–$200 million for the jet that became Air Force One, but then suddenly gifted it — with the gift idea reportedly generated at the POTUS level.
Chapter 11 · 44:20
The David Gentile Pardon: Corruption for Sale
Jon Favreau walks through the New York Times story by Ken Vogel: David Gentile, who stole more than $1 billion from mostly mom-and-pop investors, had his sentence commuted by Trump less than 2 weeks in. Jailhouse communications reportedly showed Gentile discussing $2 million in payments to secure his freedom, with a retired Catholic priest and Trump inauguration speaker — who had cleaned and photographed Trump's parents' graves as a gift — being the conduit. Trump's own political appointees then killed the early-stage DOJ investigation into how the clemency happened. Jon Lovett argues this is some of the most brazen corruption of the administration, and notes there appears to be daylight between Trump (who may not have known money was changing hands) and the operatives around him who may have been pocketing fees. Tommy says this story directly connects corruption to voter harm and is exactly the kind of message Democrats should be running on. Jon Favreau contemplates whether the next Democratic Congress should pursue impeachment purely as an educational exercise.
Claims made here
On 24 of 32 TV appearances between 2014 and 2016, Tulsi Gabbard used language from alleged cult-leader memos almost verbatim.
Trump blocked the quick confirmation of his own DNI pick, Jay Clayton, to keep Bill Pulte — a corrupt political operative with no intelligence experience — in the acting director seat. A CNN source reported Pulte began carrying out deep-state firings almost immediately upon taking the role.
A Washington Post investigation found that in 24 of 32 TV appearances between 2014 and 2016, then-Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard used language from memos written by an alleged cult leader almost verbatim. The memos also directed which legislation she should introduce. She was the Director of National Intelligence.
Washington Post reporters found that on 24 of 32 TV appearances between 2014 and 2016, Tulsi Gabbard used language from alleged cult-leader memos almost verbatim.
Chapter 12 · 52:30
Sponsor Break: CookUnity and ThirdLove
Jon Favreau reads the CookUnity ad with an off-the-cuff personal anecdote about having Thai beef curry the previous night, noting he's been a customer long before they became a sponsor. The pitch emphasizes fresh, small-batch meals from Michelin-starred chefs cooked in local micro-kitchens rather than factories. ThirdLove's ad, read by Tommy, focuses on the brand's half-cup sizing and broad range (AA through H), and offers $15 off with code PODCAST15. Functional ad break leading into the Regime Change interview.
Claims made here
Trump commuted David Gentile's sentence less than 2 weeks into a 7-year prison term, despite Gentile having stolen over $1 billion from thousands of mostly mom-and-pop investors.
Jailhouse communications showed David Gentile discussing over $2 million worth of payments to secure his freedom from prison.
Trump commuted David Gentile's sentence less than 2 weeks into a 7-year prison term, despite Gentile having stolen over $1 billion from mom-and-pop investors. Jailhouse communications showed Gentile discussing over $2 million in payments to secure his freedom, and Trump's own appointees killed the investigation into how the clemency happened.
Trump commuted the sentence of convicted fraudster David Gentile less than 2 weeks into a 7-year sentence, after Gentile had stolen over $1 billion from thousands of mostly mom-and-pop investors.
Chapter 13 · 1:01:40
Regime Change Interview: Trump 1.0 vs. 2.0 and the Napoleonic Self-Image
Tommy Vietor kicks off the Regime Change interview by noting the book involved over 1,000 interviews and is a genuine page-turner even for people who follow Trump obsessively. Maggie Haberman opens by stressing that this presidency is fundamentally different from term one: Trump is surrounded by people who have spent years thinking about how to use the levers of power, the Republican Congress is completely cowed, tech leaders and law firms have capitulated, and Trump is wielding power in ways not seen in American political history [1] — Jonathan Swan "He views himself and is trying to create this for himself as a capital G great man of history, as a sort of Napoleonic figure." 1:04:55 . Jonathan Swan takes the Napoleonic angle further, describing how Trump views himself as a capital G great man of history who wants to put his imprint on the world regardless of midterm polling. He then drops the most extraordinary anecdote in the book: Trump handed them a 2-page document in the Oval Office comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, and Genghis Khan on the basis of power. Trump relished the comparison and insisted a historian wrote it. The historian turned out to be Gary Player's former caddy [2] — Jonathan Swan "In the Oval Office, Trump handed Haberman and Swan a 2-page document comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, and Genghis…" 1:04:55 .
Claims made here
Trump handed Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan a 2-page document in the Oval Office comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, and other historical rulers on the metric of power — authored not by a historian but by Gary Player's former caddy.
Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan conducted over 1,000 interviews to produce their book Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump.
In the Oval Office, Trump handed Haberman and Swan a 2-page document comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, and Genghis Khan on the basis of power. He was relishing the comparison. The document was supposedly written by a historian — but was actually produced by Gary Player's former caddy.
Trump handed Haberman and Swan a 2-page document in the Oval Office, reportedly written by Gary Player's former caddy, comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, and Genghis Khan on the metric of power.
Chapter 14 · 1:08:20
Regime Change Interview: Corruption, the Qatari Jet, and the Trump Library
Tommy focuses the interview on corruption, which he describes as the most shocking aspect of Trump's second term. Maggie Haberman explains that the jet story was the first neon-sign moment: Qatar initially wanted $150–$200 million for the plane, and then suddenly it was a gift, with the idea reportedly generated at the POTUS level [1] — Tommy Vietor "Qatar jet: $150-200M initially sought: Qatar initially sought $150–$200 million for the jet that became Air Force One, but then suddenly gi…" 35:54 . She frames the broader mindset: Trump's family openly says they gave up a lot, there are no laws prohibiting what they're doing, and the scale is unlike anything in modern American presidential history. Jonathan Swan then drops the Howard Lutnick anecdote: Trump told people in the Oval Office that the only reason he put up with Lutnick's bullshit was the $25 million Lutnick donated to the Trump Presidential Library Fund [2] — Jonathan Swan "Trump library fundraising target: $2B: People around Trump have described a goal of raising $2 billion for his presidential library — doubl…" 1:13:18 . Swan describes a library conceived as a 100-story tower over Miami with a gold Trump statue, restaurants, and a hotel, with a fundraising target of $2 billion — double Obama's — and with Eric Trump and others approaching Gulf sovereign wealth funds and monarchies for donations, all while the administration is simultaneously selling advanced chips to the Emirates [3] — Jonathan Swan "38,000+ Trump references in Epstein files: The New York Times found more than 38,000 references to Trump, his family, and Mar-a-Lago in the…" 1:21:17 . Swan concludes that he thinks they know only 1–5% of the corruption that's actually taking place.
Claims made here
People around Trump are trying to raise $2 billion for his presidential library, double what the Obama Foundation raised, with Gulf monarchies being approached for donations.
Howard Lutnick donated $25 million to the Trump Presidential Library Fund, with Trump referencing it in the Oval Office as the reason he 'puts up with Howard's bullshit.'
People around Trump want to raise $2 billion for his presidential library — designed as a tower with a gold Trump statue, restaurants, and hotel. Eric Trump is soliciting Gulf monarchies including Saudi Arabia's MBS. The fundraising happens simultaneously with the administration selling advanced chips to the Emirates.
People around Trump have described a goal of raising $2 billion for his presidential library — double what Obama raised — including outreach to Gulf monarchies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick personally donated $25 million to the Trump Presidential Library Fund, which Trump reportedly referenced in front of others as the reason he 'puts up with Howard's bullshit.'
Chapter 15 · 1:16:00
Regime Change Interview: Oval Office Chaos and Trump's Information Bubble
Tommy asks Haberman to paint a picture of how Trump actually runs the government day-to-day. She describes an Oval Office where one meeting collides into the next, Laura Loomer lists NSC enemies while a congressman arrives for a separate appointment and joins in, and NSC aides wait in corners for classified sign-offs while a decorator walks in with Rose Garden paver samples. Government is being run by a remarkably small circle, and cabinet secretaries often don't know what's happening if they're not physically in the room. Swan then describes Natalie Harp, the former OAN anchor Trump calls his 'human printer,' who Googles positive news on demand and has written devotional letters to Trump including one saying 'you are all that matters to me.' Trump's information diet is overwhelmingly Fox News, with virtually no exposure to critical coverage — the manosphere podcast world he exploited during the 2024 campaign barely registers to him personally [1] — Jonathan Swan "She's just totally devoted to him. In Oval Office meetings, she sits on the chair the side of the room with her laptop open. And Trump, the…" 1:17:45 . Swan concludes it's an almost impenetrable bubble of flatterers, filtered news, and loyalists.
Claims made here
Trump's Oval Office meetings are unstructured rolling sessions where multiple simultaneous conversations compete for the president's attention, including classified sign-offs and decorator consultations.
Natalie Harp, a former OAN anchor, serves as Trump's personal in-room researcher — known as the 'human printer' — and has written Trump multiple personal letters including one saying 'You are all that matters to me.'
There are no structured meetings in Trump's Oval Office — just a rolling bull session. Maggie Haberman describes NSC officials waiting in a corner for sign-off on classified programs while someone else is on speakerphone from Mar-a-Lago and a decorator walks in with paver samples for the Rose Garden.
Chapter 16 · 1:20:40
Regime Change Interview: Epstein Files, JD Vance vs. Rubio, and Witkoff's Ukraine Diplomacy
Tommy asks about the Epstein file crisis, and Swan unpacks it methodically: the files contained over 38,000 references to Trump and his family, Trump himself didn't want any transparency, and his top aides held crisis management sessions in the Situation Room — a national security command center repurposed as an Epstein PR strategy room. Private focus groups conducted almost a full year later still showed Epstein cutting through to Trump's base at an alarming level. Swan compares the political damage to Biden's Afghanistan withdrawal as a turning point [1] — Jonathan Swan "Trump document compared him to top 10 historical rulers: Trump handed Haberman and Swan a 2-page document in the Oval Office, reportedly wr…" 1:04:55 . The hosts then get the extraordinary Witkoff scene: he asked Putin to sign a '3+2' territorial framework drawing, had it framed at home in black with taupe mats, and told Putin that Russia's main problem is bad PR. Trump himself, in an Oval Office Russia-Ukraine session, interrupted a Keith Kellogg presentation to say the only good thing about Ukraine is the women winning Miss Universe and that Zelensky has destroyed his country. The conversation closes with the Rupert Murdoch dinner anecdote — Trump asked Murdoch to grade Vance and Rubio at the same table, with Murdoch rating Rubio 'brilliant' and Vance merely having 'potential' [2] — Jonathan Swan "Witkoff, Trump's real-estate-buddy-turned-diplomat, asked Putin to sign a piece of paper reading '3+2' — the territorial framework ceding t…" 1:23:40 .
Claims made here
The New York Times found more than 38,000 references to Trump, his family, and Mar-a-Lago in the Epstein files.
Trump's name appeared over 38,000 times in the Epstein files. His staff held crisis meetings in the Situation Room — a national security command center repurposed as an Epstein PR crisis response center. Private focus groups conducted nearly a year later still showed Epstein cutting through to an alarming extent.
The New York Times found more than 38,000 references to Trump, his family, and Mar-a-Lago in the Epstein files.
At a White House dinner, Trump sat JD Vance and Marco Rubio at the same table as Rupert Murdoch, then asked Murdoch to assess each of them. Murdoch gave Rubio a much stronger endorsement — calling him 'brilliant' versus Vance's 'potential to be great' — while both VP candidates had to sit there and hear it.
Witkoff, Trump's real-estate-buddy-turned-diplomat, asked Putin to sign a piece of paper reading '3+2' — the territorial framework ceding three Ukrainian oblasts to Russia. Putin signed it, and Witkoff had it framed at home in black with taupe mats. His colleagues describe him as treating Putin and Zelensky as moral equals.
No indexed bits in this chapter.
Show stoppers
Snapshots ()
Key Quotes ()
This episode
Cast
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Discussed as the face of US Iran negotiations and criticized for making false claims about uranium stockpiles in an interview with Ross Douthat.
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New York Times reporter and co-author of Regime Change, provided extensive reporting on Trump's Napoleonic self-image, Witkoff's diplomacy, and Epstein file crisis management.
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New York Times reporter and co-author of Regime Change, interviewed about Trump's second-term presidency and inner White House dynamics.
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Trump's real-estate-buddy-turned-diplomatic-envoy, featured in dramatic Regime Change anecdote of asking Putin to sign a territorial capitulation drawing and having it framed at home.
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Former DNI whose congressional career is alleged by a Washington Post report to have been directed almost verbatim by memos from a cult leader.
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Controversial political operative appointed as acting DNI, immediately beginning deep-state firings and given access to sensitive intelligence files.
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Convicted sex offender whose files contained 38,000+ references to Trump and his properties; the Epstein crisis was handled in the Situation Room by Trump's top aides and continued to damage Trump politically months later.
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Secretary of State discussed as having stronger personal chemistry with Trump than JD Vance, and given a higher endorsement by Rupert Murdoch at a White House dinner.
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Russian president who signed a '3+2' territorial framework drawing for Witkoff, which Witkoff then had framed at home as a diplomatic keepsake.
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Convicted fraudster who stole over $1 billion from mom-and-pop investors and had his 7-year sentence commuted by Trump less than 2 weeks in, amid allegations of $2M in payments to secure the clemency.
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Commerce Secretary who donated $25 million to the Trump Presidential Library Fund, reportedly referenced by Trump in the Oval Office as the reason he 'puts up with' Lutnick.
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Republican senator who threatened to have the US take over the Strait of Hormuz by force, criticized by the hosts as a discredited hawk who always falls in line with Trump.
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Former SEC Chair and federal prosecutor nominated as permanent DNI, whose confirmation Trump stalled to allow Bill Pulte to remain in the acting role.
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Right-wing commentator who publicly declared he was 'out' on the Republican Party over the Iran deal, discussed by the hosts as a potential future presidential candidate.
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Former OAN anchor described as Trump's 'human printer' in the Oval Office, Googling and printing information on demand and deeply devoted to Trump personally.
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Media mogul who attended a White House dinner where Trump asked him to publicly rank JD Vance and Marco Rubio as potential successors, with Murdoch praising Rubio more highly.
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Central subject of the episode's opening segment on nuclear peace talks, sanctions relief, and the ongoing risk of Strait of Hormuz closure.
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Trump's failed $16.5M renovation project, awarded via no-bid contract to a convicted crony, became a symbol of administration corruption and incompetence.
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Key geopolitical chokepoint whose closure or threatened closure drove the Iran crisis narrative throughout the episode.
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Gifted Trump a luxury jet that became the new Air Force One, with the gift reportedly generated at the POTUS level after Qatar initially sought $150-200M for the plane.
Stats
This episode
Claims & Sources
Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.
The US agreed to waive sanctions on Iranian oil sales for 60 days, the first time in approximately 40 years.
The 60-day Iranian oil sanctions waiver could bring Iran up to $10 billion in sanctions relief, according to economist Steve Rattner.
Under the JCPOA, Iran shipped out 97% of its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia for disposal. The current deal, by contrast, would down-blend it and keep it inside Iran.
A CBS News poll found 70% of Americans said the Iran war was not worth the cost.
56% of self-identified MAGA Republicans wanted the Iran conflict ended immediately, while 44% wanted to continue fighting to get more concessions from Iran.
Trump's reflecting pool renovation cost $16.5 million and took 2 months, despite originally being described as a $1 million, one-week project.
Qatar initially sought $150 to $200 million for the plane now serving as the new Air Force One, but then suddenly gifted it, with the idea for the gift reportedly generated at the POTUS level.
An unexplained $900 million transfer from a nuclear modernization account to an unnamed classified project appeared one month after the Air Force said it would use nuclear funds to pay for the Qatari jet upgrade.
Howard Lutnick donated $25 million to the Trump Presidential Library Fund, with Trump referencing it in the Oval Office as the reason he 'puts up with Howard's bullshit.'
People around Trump are trying to raise $2 billion for his presidential library, double what the Obama Foundation raised, with Gulf monarchies being approached for donations.
The New York Times found more than 38,000 references to Trump, his family, and Mar-a-Lago in the Epstein files.
On 24 of 32 TV appearances between 2014 and 2016, Tulsi Gabbard used language from alleged cult-leader memos almost verbatim.
Trump commuted David Gentile's sentence less than 2 weeks into a 7-year prison term, despite Gentile having stolen over $1 billion from thousands of mostly mom-and-pop investors.
Jailhouse communications showed David Gentile discussing over $2 million worth of payments to secure his freedom from prison.
Trump handed Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan a 2-page document in the Oval Office comparing him to Mao, Stalin, Hitler, Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, and other historical rulers on the metric of power — authored not by a historian but by Gary Player's former caddy.
Trump's Oval Office meetings are unstructured rolling sessions where multiple simultaneous conversations compete for the president's attention, including classified sign-offs and decorator consultations.
Natalie Harp, a former OAN anchor, serves as Trump's personal in-room researcher — known as the 'human printer' — and has written Trump multiple personal letters including one saying 'You are all that matters to me.'