Speaker
Josh Keating
Appearances over time
1 episodes
Episodes
1
Podcasts
Quotes & moments
In 2025, the US carried out 125 airstrikes and one ground raid in Somalia — more than Biden's entire four-year total.
Joe Biden authorized only 51 military operations in Somalia across his entire presidency, fewer than the US conducted in Somalia in 2025 alone.
By mid-2026, the US had already conducted 70 airstrikes in Somalia, putting it on pace to surpass 2025's total.
Al-Shabaab was formed in 2002 and rose to prominence in 2006, waging a two-decade insurgency against the Somali government.
The US has been involved in Somalia's civil war almost since it began in the early 1990s, including the infamous 1993 Black Hawk Down incident.
When Trump returned to the White House, he eliminated Biden-era rules requiring White House approval for counterterrorism strikes, giving AFRICOM broad autonomous authority.
Senior US officials have stated that the head of ISIS — the global caliph — is now believed to be located in Somalia.
The World Food Programme has warned that Somalia is on the verge of famine, worsened by US aid cutbacks and the economic fallout from the war with Iran.
The US has conducted 196 airstrikes in Somalia since Trump's second term began, nearly matching his entire first-term total of 219. Two decades of continuous bombing have failed to defeat al-Shabaab, which now runs a parallel government inside Somalia's borders.
At Quantico, Trump said US politicians had wrongly convinced themselves 'our job is to police the far reaches of Kenya and Somalia.' While he said it, the US was doing exactly that. The Somalia campaign is the forever war Trump promised to end.
Two decades of US strikes haven't broken al-Shabaab — and may be fueling its growth. Every bomb that falls drives young Somalis toward the insurgency. Al-Shabaab today runs a parallel government and controls vast territory it didn't hold a decade ago.
After ISIS lost its territorial control in Syria and Iraq, its global leadership shifted to Somalia. Senior US officials now believe the global caliph — the head of ISIS — is physically located in Somalia, making it a top-tier US national security concern.
The World Food Programme warns Somalia is on the verge of famine — a crisis deepened by US USAID cuts and rising food and fuel prices from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Armed groups like al-Shabaab weaponize food insecurity for recruitment.
The US has trained and funded a Somali special forces unit called the Danab, or Lightning Force. US troops provide surveillance drones and airstrike support to these Somali units, operating in a partnership that goes far deeper than the public debate acknowledges.
Decades of foreign interventions, international resolutions, and outside funding have not stabilized Somalia — they've entrenched dependency and undermined local governance. Most Somalis just want self-determination, not outside rescuers.
Trump publicly calls Somalia 'the worst country on Earth' and vilifies Somali immigrants — while his military quietly escalates airstrikes there. Josh Keating argues the two aren't directly linked, but the context is impossible to ignore.
The US Somalia campaign doesn't require active political decisions to continue — it just keeps going unless someone stops it. When Biden added oversight rules, strikes fell. When Trump removed them, they surged. No one in Washington is debating this.
Biden required White House sign-off for every counterterrorism strike in Somalia. Trump scrapped those rules entirely, handing AFRICOM the authority to launch strikes at will. The result has been more strikes in one year than Biden authorized in four.
Under Trump's second term, low-level military commanders have been given authority to launch strikes without White House approval. The result: a farming town in southern Somalia was hit, killing 12 civilians including 8 children.
The US is conducting its most active air campaign in Somalia ever, yet it barely registers in public debate. No US troops in harm's way means no political pressure to explain the mission. The military has learned that casualty-free wars stay invisible.
Analysis
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- Government 67%
- News 33%
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