20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses | Why Founders Should Never Take Multi-Stage Money at Seed | Why Triple, Triple, Double, Double is Good Enough

20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins & Loses | Why Founders Should Never Take Multi-Stage Money at Seed | Why Triple, Triple, Double, Double is Good Enough

David Frankel says another dot-com crash is inevitable, OpenAI and Anthropic will be disrupted — and China could be the one to do it.

Aug 8, 2026 1:25:12 Difficulty: Intermediate Played

TL;DR

David Frankel, co-founder of Founder Collective, delivers a candid masterclass on seed investing — why the $50M–$100M seed funds will be the worst performers, why pro rata is "the original sin", and why a dot-com-style crash is inevitable. With 18 years of backing Uber, Coupang, Suno, and Shield AI while keeping funds deliberately small, Frankel argues that owning 5% of a $2.6B outcome still returns a seed fund — and that the best opportunities are always found off the beaten path, not in the hottest rounds.

#seed investing #AI bubble #venture fund sizing #pro rata rights #secondary markets liquidity #OpenAI disruption #China AI competition #photonic computing #autonomous vehicles #AI healthcare #founder-market fit #dot-com crash parallels #DPI vs TVPI #Founder Collective strategy #AI job displacement #venture capital #Founder Collective #David Frankel #fund sizing #secondary markets #OpenAI #Anthropic #China AI #disruption #DPI #pro rata #dot-com crash #founder selection #Shield AI #Suno #valuations

David Frankel, co-founder of Founder Collective, joins Harry Stebbings to discuss seed investing discipline, AI market dynamics, fund sizing, secondary markets, and long-range technology predictions including autonomous vehicles and AI-driven healthcare.

Chapter list
  • The episode opens cold with David Frankel's most provocative lines — on growing bubbles, inevitable roadkill, and the liquidity of secondary markets — before Harry Stebbings introduces him as one of the great seed investors of our time. Harry makes the case for why Frankel is exceptional: unlike nearly every peer, he resisted scaling funds, kept the boutique discipline alive, and successfully navigated from the pre-AI era (Coupang, Uber, PillPack, SeatGeek) into the AI wave (Shield AI, Suno at $5B). The intro establishes the episode's central tension: small and disciplined versus big and resourced. Three sponsor spots follow — Fireworks AI (intelligent model routing for production AI), Asana (AI-native operating system for human-agent teams), and Superhuman (AI email assistant) — before the conversation begins properly.

  • An honest and revealing section where Frankel admits what Founder Collective has become in this market: an insurance policy. He's seen it clearly in the last 20 deals — founders take the multi-stage fund's $8–9M but keep FC in at $500K or $1M, knowing their champion at the big fund might leave, might lose mandate, or might simply move on to the next hot company. FC's brand and reputation as patient capital is itself a product. Frankel also issues a clear-eyed warning: there is very little evidence yet that the hot AI companies raising massive rounds are capital efficient — if anything, they're anything but. The discussion then moves to valuations: uncapped notes are economically bad for investors but Frankel has written one because he loved the founders. He also raises the normalization of startup founding through YC and questions whether there's a meaningful difference between 'founders' and 'entrepreneurs' — arguing the latter is a rarer, more demanding breed.

  • With Benchmark, A16Z, and even the most disciplined growth funds raising billions, Harry asks directly: is Founder Collective really not tempted? Frankel admits the tension is real and recurring. But the answer always comes back to the same fact: the GP is the largest LP. No external investor has more skin in the game than the partners themselves. When you're aligned that way, the calculus on fund size becomes entirely about return multiples, not management fees. Frankel also notes that the firm has been deeply disciplined about DPI — how much real cash comes back to investors — and that growing the fund size makes that discipline structurally harder. He also reflects honestly on what they've left on the table: had they followed on in Uber, Coupang, or Suno at Series A, the absolute dollar returns would be higher, though he doubts the fund multiple would be better.

  • David Frankel makes his most provocative structural argument: pro rata rights are bad for entrepreneurs. They're a call option against the founder, not for investors. Founder Collective has never led a follow-on round in its entire history — and when pro rata is offered only to the lead, Frankel questions whether that should be the norm. The conversation then pivots to investment frameworks: Peter Thiel once said simply following every up-round from good brands would have been the best strategy in the golden era. Frankel concedes the data probably supports that retrospectively. Harry then drops his most controversial line of the episode: a $1 billion valuation is the new Series A. He cites Cursor at $60B, Cognition at $26B — if you're entering at $1B and underwriting to $20B, that's just the new math. Frankel gently pushes back, arguing that's the momentum game, not his game.

  • Harry asks how concentrated Founder Collective's returns actually are — referencing Ho Nam's Altos Ventures where Roblox was the single overwhelming driver. Frankel's answer is surprising: less concentrated than you'd expect. Fund 2 has Vacata, Shield, Whoop, and PillPack all as major contributors. Fund 1 has the Trade Desks, Ubers, and Coupangs, but also Airtable, Simply, and SeatGeek. He then introduces one of his firm's most distinctive practices: every investment pitch in a team meeting must begin with 'I love it because…' If you can't finish that sentence compellingly, you don't invest. And critically, you cannot finish it with valuation — it must be founders, opportunity, or edge. His best recent answer? 'I love it because every question I ask, I get a better answer than I expected, and they're never evasive.' He also reveals his current thesis on 'nepo babies': founders who spent their formative years inside the vertical they're now disrupting, using TJ Parker's pharmacy childhood and Suno's Kensho roots as examples.

  • Harry raises a pointed question about founder loyalty and focus: today's founders often have angel portfolios as large as small VC funds, run side projects, and leave companies in 12–18 months. Is the breed changing? Frankel acknowledges the evidence at the margins — he's been dazzled by founder brand power that didn't translate to staying power — but argues the vast minority of founders actually abandon ship. His most interesting observation: second-time founders who had a life-changing but not enormous first outcome are often the best bets. They're hungry, they've learned lessons, they have one or two loyal team members ready to follow them, and they're in a hurry. By contrast, founders who had genuinely great outcomes and 'go again' often get bored when the second company isn't big enough fast enough.

  • Harry raises the job displacement question. Frankel's position: mass unemployment is not coming, but a massive productivity divide is inevitable. The haves and have-nots used to be about who had data; now it's about who can use the tools. Young people tinkering with AI in dorm rooms have a structural advantage because they're mentally plastic to the technology. Simon and Claire at 45, with decades of accounting experience, face a harder path. Their only real edge is vertical knowledge — they can sell to people who look like them and trust them, and in high-stakes service situations (litigation, insurance, auditing), the human interface still has value. Frankel sees the greatest retraining opportunity in lower-cost global environments, and is broadly optimistic that productivity gains will outweigh displacement. The TAM expansion play in services — suddenly being able to afford a lawyer for things you couldn't before — is a genuine economic benefit.

  • Harry asks the hypothetical: what would cause Frankel to raise a larger fund? His answer is specific: if he saw a genuine arbitrage at Series A or B — companies growing steadily but being abandoned by momentum investors, trading at unfair discounts — that would pull him upstream. He explicitly says it's not about momentum, but about perceived value dislocation. He then surfaces one of the most honest moments of the episode: Founder Collective was introduced to Klaviyo early, through the same person who sent them Suno. He loved the founders but said no because the valuation didn't fit his framework. Klaviyo went on to IPO at a multi-billion dollar valuation. The framework saved them from many bad deals — but it also cost them Klaviyo. Frankel's verdict: frameworks are imperfect tools, and the best investors know when to override them for the truly extraordinary.

  • The quickfire round opens with a genuinely surprising admission from Frankel: AI should have impacted consumer applications far more by now, and he's been disappointed by how little has changed in consumer AI relative to the hype. He types less and speaks more, but the category hasn't been fully played out. He then reveals what investors at Suno's $5B valuation are actually underwriting: a Spotify and Apple Music disruptor thesis — moving from a creation tool to a consumption platform, which is why Jack from Snap was brought in as CEO. The most memorable moment is Suno CTO Martin Camacho's answer when asked whether he'd swap out his own model for a better one: 'Wouldn't think twice about it.' The product is the interface and experience. How it gets built is irrelevant to the user.

  • Harry asks what Frankel is most excited about in the next 10 years. The answer is deeply personal and wide-ranging: autonomous vehicles — slow, slow, slow, then overnight — will mean the kids of today never need a driver's license. And AI-driven medical compute will produce treatments that make current chemotherapy look prehistoric. He names the friends he's lost to cancer and the conviction that something much better is coming. Harry, who has no driver's license, takes personal delight in the prediction. The two exchange warm closing remarks, reflecting on 11 years of friendship and mutual admiration, before the episode ends with a second full run of the three sponsor reads: Fireworks AI (intelligent model routing), Asana (AI-native workflow for human-agent teams), and Superhuman (AI email assistant).

DPI (Distributed to Paid-In)
A venture fund performance metric measuring how much cash has actually been returned to investors relative to their capital contributions — the 'real money' metric, distinct from paper gains (TVPI).
TVPI (Total Value to Paid-In)
A venture fund metric that includes both distributed cash and the estimated current value of unrealised holdings — a paper gains metric that critics compare to a prediction market.
Pro rata
The contractual right of an existing investor to participate in future funding rounds to maintain their ownership percentage; David Frankel calls it 'the original sin' because it functions as a call option against founders.
IRR (Internal Rate of Return)
A time-weighted investment return metric that penalises slow-returning assets; relevant here because Olo's 17-year journey to a $2B exit produced a modest IRR despite a solid nominal return.
Uncapped note
A convertible investment instrument with no ceiling on the price at which it converts to equity, meaning early investors may end up paying a much higher effective price than intended when the priced round occurs.
Pre-money / Post-money valuation
Pre-money is a company's valuation before new investment; post-money includes the new capital. Frankel uses post-money thresholds as a framework for deciding when a deal is too expensive for Founder Collective.
Photonic computing
A computing paradigm that uses photons (light particles) instead of electrons to transmit and process data, promising dramatic gains in energy efficiency; Frankel predicts it will disrupt Nvidia's GPU dominance.
Off-piste
Borrowed from skiing, meaning outside the marked run or mainstream — used by Frankel to describe investment opportunities found away from the hot, consensus themes of the moment.
SaaSpocalypse
Industry slang for the severe devaluation and disruption of traditional SaaS companies caused by the rise of AI, which threatens to replace or cannibalize software tools that were previously sticky.
Seed extension / Seed plus
A follow-on funding round for a startup that has not yet grown fast enough to raise a traditional Series A, often at flat or modest valuations, representing a 'bridge' round for companies in between milestones.
LP (Limited Partner)
An investor in a venture fund who provides capital but has no role in investment decisions; the counterpart to the GP (General Partner) who manages the fund.
GP (General Partner)
The managing partner(s) of a venture fund who make investment decisions and are compensated via management fees and carried interest; in Founder Collective's case, also the largest LP in their own funds.
Carried interest (carry)
The share of investment profits (typically 20%) paid to the fund's GPs as performance compensation, on top of management fees — the primary incentive alignment mechanism in venture.
Alchemy
Used by Frankel metaphorically to describe the rare, almost inexplicable chemistry between a CEO and CTO co-founding pair that produces an exceptional founding team greater than the sum of its parts.
Psychographic
A categorisation of people based on psychological traits, values, attitudes, and lifestyle rather than demographics; Frankel uses it to argue that the drive and focus of a great founder is a mindset, not tied to age.
DARPA
Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency — the US government body that funds high-risk, high-reward R&D; Frankel cites cuts to DARPA-style R&D as a strategic risk for US competitiveness against China.
Pollyannish
Unrealistically or blindly optimistic; used by Frankel as a self-deprecating acknowledgement that his positive view on founder loyalty might be overly rose-tinted.
Vertical slice (secondaries)
A secondary transaction where a fund sells a proportional cross-section of all its portfolio positions rather than exiting a single company, used to provide liquidity to LPs while maintaining exposure to all holdings.

Chapter 1 · 00:00

The Bubbles Are Getting Bigger—and There Will Be a Lot of Roadkill

The episode opens cold with David Frankel's most provocative lines — on growing bubbles, inevitable roadkill, and the liquidity of secondary markets — before Harry Stebbings introduces him as one of the great seed investors of our time. Harry makes the case for why Frankel is exceptional: unlike nearly every peer, he resisted scaling funds, kept the boutique discipline alive, and successfully navigated from the pre-AI era (Coupang, Uber, PillPack, SeatGeek) into the AI wave (Shield AI, Suno at $5B). The intro establishes the episode's central tension: small and disciplined versus big and resourced. Three sponsor spots follow — Fireworks AI (intelligent model routing for production AI), Asana (AI-native operating system for human-agent teams), and Superhuman (AI email assistant) — before the conversation begins properly.

Chapter 2 · 05:21

The Worst-Performing Funds Will Be the $50M–$100M Seed Funds

An honest and revealing section where Frankel admits what Founder Collective has become in this market: an insurance policy. He's seen it clearly in the last 20 deals — founders take the multi-stage fund's $8–9M but keep FC in at $500K or $1M, knowing their champion at the big fund might leave, might lose mandate, or might simply move on to the next hot company. FC's brand and reputation as patient capital is itself a product. Frankel also issues a clear-eyed warning: there is very little evidence yet that the hot AI companies raising massive rounds are capital efficient — if anything, they're anything but. The discussion then moves to valuations: uncapped notes are economically bad for investors but Frankel has written one because he loved the founders. He also raises the normalization of startup founding through YC and questions whether there's a meaningful difference between 'founders' and 'entrepreneurs' — arguing the latter is a rarer, more demanding breed.

Chapter 3 · 25:06

We're Greedy for Returns, Not Management Fees

With Benchmark, A16Z, and even the most disciplined growth funds raising billions, Harry asks directly: is Founder Collective really not tempted? Frankel admits the tension is real and recurring. But the answer always comes back to the same fact: the GP is the largest LP. No external investor has more skin in the game than the partners themselves. When you're aligned that way, the calculus on fund size becomes entirely about return multiples, not management fees. Frankel also notes that the firm has been deeply disciplined about DPI — how much real cash comes back to investors — and that growing the fund size makes that discipline structurally harder. He also reflects honestly on what they've left on the table: had they followed on in Uber, Coupang, or Suno at Series A, the absolute dollar returns would be higher, though he doubts the fund multiple would be better.

Chapter 4 · 30:10

Pro Rata Is the Original Sin

David Frankel makes his most provocative structural argument: pro rata rights are bad for entrepreneurs. They're a call option against the founder, not for investors. Founder Collective has never led a follow-on round in its entire history — and when pro rata is offered only to the lead, Frankel questions whether that should be the norm. The conversation then pivots to investment frameworks: Peter Thiel once said simply following every up-round from good brands would have been the best strategy in the golden era. Frankel concedes the data probably supports that retrospectively. Harry then drops his most controversial line of the episode: a $1 billion valuation is the new Series A. He cites Cursor at $60B, Cognition at $26B — if you're entering at $1B and underwriting to $20B, that's just the new math. Frankel gently pushes back, arguing that's the momentum game, not his game.

Chapter 5 · 32:59

A $1BN Valuation Is the New Series A

Harry asks how concentrated Founder Collective's returns actually are — referencing Ho Nam's Altos Ventures where Roblox was the single overwhelming driver. Frankel's answer is surprising: less concentrated than you'd expect. Fund 2 has Vacata, Shield, Whoop, and PillPack all as major contributors. Fund 1 has the Trade Desks, Ubers, and Coupangs, but also Airtable, Simply, and SeatGeek. He then introduces one of his firm's most distinctive practices: every investment pitch in a team meeting must begin with 'I love it because…' If you can't finish that sentence compellingly, you don't invest. And critically, you cannot finish it with valuation — it must be founders, opportunity, or edge. His best recent answer? 'I love it because every question I ask, I get a better answer than I expected, and they're never evasive.' He also reveals his current thesis on 'nepo babies': founders who spent their formative years inside the vertical they're now disrupting, using TJ Parker's pharmacy childhood and Suno's Kensho roots as examples.

Business
Why the Best Opportunities Are Always Off-Piste

20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins &… · Aug 8, 2026 Business

Shield AI was a defense drone company in 2016 — controversial, unfashionable, and misunderstood. Today it's one of the most important defense technology companies in the world. Frankel's core thesis: the best investments are never in the hot theme of the moment. Applied AI in 2016 was off-piste. The job is to be there 5–10 years ahead.

Business
The 'Nepo Baby' Founders Frankel Actually Wants to Fund

20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins &… · Aug 8, 2026 Business

Forget trust-fund kids — Frankel's 'nepo babies' are founders who grew up inside the vertical they're now disrupting. TJ Parker worked in his dad's pharmacy at 14. The Suno founders built their entire careers on audio AI at Kensho. Evan at Rebar watched his uncle's HVAC business get rolled up by PE. That embedded knowledge is an edge no amount of funding can buy.

Chapter 6 · 46:39

I Have Never Seen Secondary Markets This Liquid

Harry raises a pointed question about founder loyalty and focus: today's founders often have angel portfolios as large as small VC funds, run side projects, and leave companies in 12–18 months. Is the breed changing? Frankel acknowledges the evidence at the margins — he's been dazzled by founder brand power that didn't translate to staying power — but argues the vast minority of founders actually abandon ship. His most interesting observation: second-time founders who had a life-changing but not enormous first outcome are often the best bets. They're hungry, they've learned lessons, they have one or two loyal team members ready to follow them, and they're in a hurry. By contrast, founders who had genuinely great outcomes and 'go again' often get bored when the second company isn't big enough fast enough.

Chapter 7 · 58:03

Microsoft Has Done a Crappy Job of AI—and Another Dot-Com Crash Is Inevitable

Harry raises the job displacement question. Frankel's position: mass unemployment is not coming, but a massive productivity divide is inevitable. The haves and have-nots used to be about who had data; now it's about who can use the tools. Young people tinkering with AI in dorm rooms have a structural advantage because they're mentally plastic to the technology. Simon and Claire at 45, with decades of accounting experience, face a harder path. Their only real edge is vertical knowledge — they can sell to people who look like them and trust them, and in high-stakes service situations (litigation, insurance, auditing), the human interface still has value. Frankel sees the greatest retraining opportunity in lower-cost global environments, and is broadly optimistic that productivity gains will outweigh displacement. The TAM expansion play in services — suddenly being able to afford a lawyer for things you couldn't before — is a genuine economic benefit.

Technology
Microsoft Is Losing the AI War — and Google Is Actually Winning

20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins &… · Aug 8, 2026 Technology

Conventional wisdom says Microsoft's OpenAI investment put them at the front of the AI race. Frankel disagrees sharply. Google is actually in pole position — they come from an AI-native background, and search with context is where AI creates the most value. Microsoft's AI feels second-rate. Recovery is unclear.

Technology
OpenAI and Anthropic Will Be Disrupted — China Is the Most Likely Culprit

20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins &… · Aug 8, 2026 Technology

Every dominant technology platform has eventually been displaced — mainframes, Microsoft, Google, now OpenAI and Anthropic. Frankel says their disruption is 'unequivocal.' The most likely source? China. And the speed of the innovation cycle means they may not even have time to establish their incumbency first.

Chapter 8 · 1:08:27

OpenAI and Anthropic Will Be Disrupted—and China Could Do It

Harry asks the hypothetical: what would cause Frankel to raise a larger fund? His answer is specific: if he saw a genuine arbitrage at Series A or B — companies growing steadily but being abandoned by momentum investors, trading at unfair discounts — that would pull him upstream. He explicitly says it's not about momentum, but about perceived value dislocation. He then surfaces one of the most honest moments of the episode: Founder Collective was introduced to Klaviyo early, through the same person who sent them Suno. He loved the founders but said no because the valuation didn't fit his framework. Klaviyo went on to IPO at a multi-billion dollar valuation. The framework saved them from many bad deals — but it also cost them Klaviyo. Frankel's verdict: frameworks are imperfect tools, and the best investors know when to override them for the truly extraordinary.

Technology
Photonic Computing: The Technology That Will Dethrone Nvidia

20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins &… · Aug 8, 2026 Technology

Nvidia looks invincible today — just as Intel once did. Frankel believes photonic computing, chips using photons instead of electrical signals, will be the disruptor. Optical fiber already handles all connectivity in data centers. The last frontier is the chip itself. When it arrives, the energy consumption argument against AI collapses.

Chapter 9 · 1:16:22

Anyone Who Claims They Knew Is Full of Shit

The quickfire round opens with a genuinely surprising admission from Frankel: AI should have impacted consumer applications far more by now, and he's been disappointed by how little has changed in consumer AI relative to the hype. He types less and speaks more, but the category hasn't been fully played out. He then reveals what investors at Suno's $5B valuation are actually underwriting: a Spotify and Apple Music disruptor thesis — moving from a creation tool to a consumption platform, which is why Jack from Snap was brought in as CEO. The most memorable moment is Suno CTO Martin Camacho's answer when asked whether he'd swap out his own model for a better one: 'Wouldn't think twice about it.' The product is the interface and experience. How it gets built is irrelevant to the user.

Chapter 10 · 1:19:56

Our Children Won't Need to Drive—and Chemotherapy Will Look Prehistoric

Harry asks what Frankel is most excited about in the next 10 years. The answer is deeply personal and wide-ranging: autonomous vehicles — slow, slow, slow, then overnight — will mean the kids of today never need a driver's license. And AI-driven medical compute will produce treatments that make current chemotherapy look prehistoric. He names the friends he's lost to cancer and the conviction that something much better is coming. Harry, who has no driver's license, takes personal delight in the prediction. The two exchange warm closing remarks, reflecting on 11 years of friendship and mutual admiration, before the episode ends with a second full run of the three sponsor reads: Fireworks AI (intelligent model routing), Asana (AI-native workflow for human-agent teams), and Superhuman (AI email assistant).

Technology
Children Today Will Never Need to Drive — and Chemo Will Look Prehistoric

20VC: The AI Boom Will Create Enormous Roadkill: Who Wins &… · Aug 8, 2026 Technology

The driverless car promise that seemed '5 years away' for 20 years is finally tipping. Frankel believes the children of today's founders will never need a driver's license. And with AI accelerating medical compute, treatments like chemotherapy will look as barbaric to future generations as bloodletting looks to us.

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This episode

Claims & Sources

1 / 15 cited (7%)

Factual claims made this episode, and whether a source was named.

Fewer than 100 companies created in the last 25 years have sustained valuations above $10 billion.

David Frankel no source cited

The median valuation of the top 500 companies created in the last 25 years is $2.6 billion.

David Frankel no source cited

In the 1820s, China accounted for approximately 25% of global economic output, making it the world's largest economy.

David Frankel The Economist

Suno is now worth $5 billion.

Harry Stebbings no source cited

Mikey Schulman, CEO of Suno, spends 30–40% of his time on recruiting.

David Frankel no source cited

Jeff Bezos said he spends 50% of his time on hiring ('bums on seats').

David Frankel no source cited

Olo was taken private by Thoma Bravo at approximately a $2 billion valuation.

David Frankel no source cited

The non-dilutive government funding that Elon Musk received for Tesla from the Biden administration was huge.

David Frankel no source cited

Microsoft's AI products feel second-rate compared to the top 3 or 4 AI companies.

David Frankel no source cited

The Cursor code editor was sold for $60 billion.

Harry Stebbings no source cited

Wix is currently trading at $2.1 billion on $2.1 billion of revenue.

Harry Stebbings no source cited

Founder Collective has never led a follow-on funding round in its entire history.

David Frankel no source cited

Photonic computing uses photons instead of electrons and will dramatically reduce data center energy consumption.

David Frankel no source cited

There are over 100,000 mechanical engineers in the US earning at least $100K each who spend their time on HVAC blueprint quoting processes.

David Frankel no source cited

Another dot-com-style market crash is definitely coming; the only unknown is when.

David Frankel no source cited

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